The Boston Red Sox are 30-34 and in fourth place in the American League East. They are 9 1/2 games out of the division lead and four games out of a Wild Card spot.
Jarren Duran has received some trade interest as the Red Sox have struggled over the last couple of weeks. While the Red Sox are not sellers just yet, Duran will be a popular name at the deadline if the team does not turn things around. However, FanSided’s Christopher Kline suggested the Red Sox trade Duran sooner rather than later, before his numbers plummet.
“This feels like an inflection point for Duran and the Red Sox,” wrote Kline. “While he is undeniably a good outfielder, the trends are worrisome. He has experienced a sharp decline in expected slugging (.424) and expected xwOBA, or weighted On-Base Average (.300). His barrel rate is down (8.5 percent, compared to 9.4 percent last season).
“Duran’s simply is not making good contact at the same rate he was a year ago. His OPS (.747) is the lowest it’s been since 2022, when Duran was not a full-timer in Boston yet. More than a decline in production, the metrics that measure quality of contact, independent of results, are also on a downward spiral. His swing is rapidly losing potency.”
Duran is hitting .274/.323/.423 with four home runs. He also leads the league in triples and has 13 stolen bases. His numbers on the surface look like those of an All-Star, which he was last season. However, Kline suggests that the advanced metrics tell a different story. Trading Duran would not necessarily be a move that points to giving up on the season.
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The Red Sox are going to need to make some kind of move soon. Their primary outfield trio has been Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu. Last year’s designated hitter, Masataka Yoshida, will soon join the outfield group since Rafael Devers now holds the designated hitter spot. All of that is preventing the top prospect in baseball, Roman Anthony, from making his debut.
“There is no reason to believe Duran has hit a wall at 28 years old, but he’s performing like an adequate starter, rather than the superstar Boston fans hoped he might become,” wrote Kline. “Factor in the ongoing need to create space for No. 1 overall prospect Roman Anthony in the outfield, and there’s ample reason for the Red Sox to bite the bullet and trade him right now, before his numbers reach a more dire territory that scares off prospective buyers.”
Duran will have many suitors at the deadline, if he’s made available. He is the most likely candidate to be traded among the current outfielders. He is the oldest, has the least club control and has not signed an extension. He will be a free agent in 2029, and Spotrac projects him to earn a six-year, $123 million deal.
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