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Pacers’ low win probability among 5 wildest stats from comeback win vs. Thunder in Game 1 of NBA Finals

Throughout the 2025 NBA Playoffs, the Pacers have made a habit of making the impossible possible. That trend continued Thursday in Game 1 of the NBA Finals vs. the Thunder.

Indiana trailed by as many as 15 points in the fourth quarter, but it didn’t matter. The team remained relentless and chipped away to steal a 111-110 win, courtesy of yet another last-second game-winner from Tyrese Haliburton.

Naturally, the Pacers’ large deficit meant they had an extremely low win probability during the game’s final moments. Those unlikely odds are just one part of a group of unbelievable stats from the latest submission to their list of fourth-quarter comebacks.

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Wildest stats from Pacers’ Game 1 comeback vs. Thunder

Comeback kings

Game 1 of the NBA Finals was the Pacers’ fifth comeback win after trailing by 15 or more points in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. That is the most by any team in a single postseason since 1998.

Indiana is now 5-3 when trailing by 15-plus points this postseason.

First-of-its-kind comeback

Not only did the Pacers reaffirm their standing as the king of the comeback in Game 1, but they also did something that has never been done before.

Before Thursday, NBA teams were 0-121 when down by seven or more points in the final three minutes of regulation in the NBA Finals since 1997. Indiana became the first to win, improving that record to 1-121.

MORE NBA FINALS GAME 1

0.3 seconds

Haliburton’s jumper with 0.3 seconds remaining proved to be the game-winner, but it also gave Indiana its first lead. The Pacers won Game 1 despite leading for less than five-tenths of a second, making them the fourth team since 1998 to win a playoff game despite leading for 30 seconds or less, per stats guru Keerthika Uthayakumar.

It’s also the latest into any Finals game that a team took its first lead since 1971.

1 in 75 million

The Pacers have now pulled off a list of impressive comebacks this postseason. Here’s the win probability from each one:

  • 3.0% in Game 1 of the NBA Finals vs. Thunder
  • 0.3% in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Knicks
  • 2.1% in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. Cavaliers
  • 0.7% in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference First Round vs. Bucks

Indiana won each game.

Based on the probability, the likelihood of a team winning all four games in which it had the above win probability is one in 75 million. Perhaps the Pacers are a team of destiny.

450 days

Oklahoma City posted a 29-1 record against Eastern Conference opponents in the 2024-25 season, including a spotless 15-0 record at the Paycom Center. OKC’s last home loss to an Eastern Conference team? March 12, 2024, against the Pacers.

Now, 450 days later, Indiana used its comeback to put an end to OKC’s incredible home streak vs. teams from the East.

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