Oklahoma City goes for a coveted 2-0 lead in their Western Conference Finals series tonight at home against Minnesota.
After a sluggish first half, the Thunder blew out the Wolves in Game 1 by 26 points. Teams that go up 2-0 in conference finals are 60-6 to win the series. That’s a big number.
I’m watching the numbers on Game 2 at Paycom Center. OKC is laying a bunch of points. They covered with no problem in Game 1. What can they do in Game 2?
Wolves vs, Thunder Game 2 Odds
The Thunder are giving 7.5 points across the board with the total at 214.5, which seems low to me, but that has been the trend in the playoffs.
Minnesota is 8-3 against the spread in the playoffs, 5-6 over/under. The Thunder are both 5-7 against the spread and over/under in the playoffs.
OKC has covered in 58 of its last 95 games and hit the moneyline 66 of the last 80. Thunder games have hit the over in 40 of their last 67 games.
The Wolves are 12-13 as underdogs this season, and each of their last five playoff games when they were underdogs have hit the under.
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Wolves at Thunder Game 2 Preview
It looked like it was going to be a close series after the first half of Game 1. Both teams were playing tight defense, Minnesota had a slim lead, and then the game completely flipped at halftime.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the new NBA MVP, had 20 points in the second half, finishing with 31 points. Side note – he’s scored 31 or more points in his last seven home games against the Wolves. He’s also scored 30 or more in eight of his last 10 games. Minnesota went ice cold, shooting 35 percent from the floor in the game. Wolves star Anthony Edwards had 18 points on 5-13 shooting. That won’t get it done.
OKC used its depth after playing on short rest, and it paid off in a big way. Minnesota got nothing from its big guys. Rudy Gobert had two points, super sub Naz Reid went 1-11 from the floor.
The question coming into Game 2 is, was that an anomaly for the Wolves, or did the Thunder solve Minnesota after a half?
Wolves at Thunder Game 2 Prediction
My big Game 1 takeaway was that the Wolves don’t have an answer for the Thunder on defense. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is SGA’s cousin (you’ve probably already heard that 100 times), and he was powerless against SGA. The new MVP also got to the free throw line 14 times. He gets calls at home.
MVP SGA + FTs = Ws for OKC.
If Minnesota is going to have a shot in this series, they clearly need more from their bigs. I do think Reid and Gobert play a lot better going forward. I see this game as closer than Game 1, but I think the Thunder can go small, get to the basket, and get to the line whenever they have to. Don’t be surprised if this one follows the same script as Game 1. Underdogs have led at halftime in six of the last seven games between these two.
The spread gives me pause – it’s bigger than it was in Game 1 – but I will take the Thunder to cover.
The pick: Thunder -7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
