The four teams remaining in the Conference Finals have demonstrated that we are in a new era of the NBA. The Pacers and Wolves have never won a championship. The Knicks last won in 1973. And the Thunder haven’t won since 1979, when they were playing in Seattle as the Sonics.
Welcome to the Parity Era, where dynasties have gone the way of the sky hook and a new winner has been crowned in each of the last seven years.
It would be a mistake to count any of these remaining four teams out. They’ve each shown they can win in unfavorable circumstances, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see any as the last one standing. Here are the most likely teams to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy, ranked from top to bottom.
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Ranking the NBA Conference Finalists most likely to win the championship
1. Thunder
Why they’ll win it: We may have just seen the NBA Finals in the second round of the playoffs. The series between the Nuggets and Thunder was that good.
Nikola Jokic looked like the best player in the NBA through most of the playoffs. The Thunder found an unlikely answer. At 6-feet-5-inches and 186 pounds, Alex Caruso has taken on the toughest assignments no matter the size. He and Isaiah Hartenstein have been the difference-makers from last year’s squad that fell short. They’ve helped lead a defensive unit that is suffocating opponents.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has done enough on offense, leading all remaining players in the playoffs with 29.0 points per game. This is far from a one-man crew, though. The sheer depth of the team’s roster has allowed them to play multiple different types of lineups and given them the ability to counter any type of strategy tried against them. They were a regular season juggernaut, and they’ve proven that they’re not a fluke.
Why they might not: The teams who have advanced thus far have avoided major injuries. The Thunder have been one of the healthiest, in part because they’ve kept minutes for their guys low. They will start to ramp those up, and they have some injury-prone guys like Caruso on their team who could get banged up.
The Thunder’s offense is also a question mark. Jalen Williams came through brilliantly in Game 7, but he’s also had some big stinkers throughout his playoff career. If they can’t get a reliable second scoring option, then teams will load up on Gilgeous-Alexander and force the other guys to beat them.
Lastly, the Thunder’s great defense is most effective when the officials are calling the game loosely. They are very physical, toeing the line of what is and isn’t a foul. If they get a crew with a tight whistle, that will take some of the bite out of their team.
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2. Pacers
Why they’ll win it: There hasn’t been a hotter team than the Pacers to close out the year. They finished the year with a 40-17 record after stumbling to a 10-15 start.
Count these guys out at your own risk, because they will continually make the doubters look foolish.
ESPN really went 0-22 from the field 🫣🤣 pic.twitter.com/WWE3Xj5jjK
— WOJ ARTEST🇦🇺 (@NbaWoody) May 17, 2025
Add yours truly to the list of people that picked against them last round. Sure, injuries to the Cavs helped the Pacers advance past the second round. But that’s not giving this Indiana team nearly enough credit. Their defense has improved dramatically from last season, and Haliburton has made those claims that he’s overrated look completely asinine with clutch play after clutch play.
MORE: Why NBA players are wrong for voting Tyrese Haliburton most overrated player
Why they might not: The Pacers are a team that relies on speed. The Knicks are one that has played at one of the slower paces in the league. New York has controlled the flow of the game in earlier rounds. If they can do it in the Conference Finals, then they’ll probably win.
The Pacers also aren’t going to have the best player in every series going forward. Haliburton is an All-NBA talent, but Indiana will likely be going against the presumptive MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander if they get past the Knicks.
While Indiana has been a much better defense this season, they’re still not a top-10 team in that department yet. That is historically what it has taken in order to win a championship.
MORE: Aaron Nesmith is now the X-factor for the Pacers
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3. Knicks
Why they’ll win it: When the games get close, the Knicks have one of the best finishers in the league. Jalen Brunson has put the team on his back and delivered over and over.
New York has been a better team than they looked during the regular season. Tom Thibodeau doesn’t trust many guys in his rotation, but Deuce McBride and Mitchell Robinson have given him a solid seven that he can count on. Robinson in particular has been a game-changer after missing most of the regular season.
MORE: Mitchell Robinson has been the Knicks’ not-so-secret weapon
Why they might not: The Knicks did look good against the Pistons and Celtics (even before Jayson Tatum’s injury). That wasn’t the case though in the regular season, where they struggled to stay competitive in most of their marquee matchups and went just 15-23 against teams above. 500.
Health is always a question mark with this team. Brunson has continued to grind his way through an ankle issue that has visibly bothered him throughout the playoffs. It isn’t a Knicks game until you see Josh Hart wincing or bleeding out on the floor. All five Knicks starters are top-five in minutes played throughout the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. They can’t afford to lose any of their main guys, and all are carrying a lot of miles on their bodies.
4. Timberwolves
Why they’ll win it: Defense wins championships, and the Wolves have are elite once again. Reports of Rudy Gobert’s defensive demise were greatly exaggerated. He’s been a superior rim protector, and Jaden McDaniels has been excellent on both ends of the floor.
Anthony Edwards has been the best player in every series that the Wolves have been in. He turned into one of the best 3-point shooters in the league during the regular season, but he’s back to his roots as a fearless rim attacker in the playoffs. His passing is the best that it’s ever been in his career.
Most importantly, the Wolves have a fantastic bench. The league has increasingly become about a lack of weak links, and they don’t have much to poke and prod at. Naz Reid has been the best reserve big man of the playoffs. Donte DiVincenzo is always capable of going off for big scoring bursts. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a great two-way X-factor.
Why they might not: It’s disrespectful to have the Wolves last on this list. They’re not the worst team in this group. But they are facing the best one left.
The Thunder are going to make things even more difficult for a Wolves offense that had trouble scoring against a banged-up Warriors team.
Edwards will have to do a lot in this series. He will face his toughest challenge yet. The Thunder have so many suffocating perimeter defenders to throw at him, including Lu Dort, Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, and SGA. His passing has improved in these playoffs. He will really be tested under the intense pressure that those guys will throw at him.
Julius Randle has likewise been a brilliant passer in the postseason and the other major driver of the Wolves offense. It’s not going to be as easy for him in this round. He will have to keep his turnovers low, which nobody has managed to do against the Thunder. If Jokic couldn’t beat this defense, then it’s tough to envision Randle being successful against them.
