Dance with the one who brought you. That’s been the theme our MLB player prop bets over the last few days as we’ve been attacking the dreadful Rockies relentlessly. It’s helped us to a 9- 4 record so far this week after another sweep on Saturday, and we’re not going to deviate from that plan given what’s on deck Sunday.
Colorado hosts San Diego again after the Padres put up 25 hits and 21 runs last night. San Diego has crossed the plate 34 times in the series’ first two games, while the Rockies have surrendered 72 runs in their last six games alone.
Life won’t get any easier for Colorado today, as they’re forced to rely on struggling righty German Marquez. He’s off to a 0-6 start, with a dismal 9.90 ERA.
MLB Player Prop Picks for May 11
German Marquez Over 3.5 Runs (-120 at Bet365)
To make matters worse, Marquez has a dreadful history against the white-hot Padres. Current San Diego batters are slashing .331/.378/.551 versus him over an 118 at-bat sample size.
They’ve tagged him for 5 home runs and 14 extra-base hits, while Marquze has allowed at least 5 earned runs in five consecutive starts.
Marquez is yielding a hard hit rate of 43% and a home run rate of 3%. His 12% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and there’s a good chance he’s going to be a sacrificial lamb today.
Colorado has exhausted its bullpen this week and is going to need Marquez to eat innings regardless of how he’s pitching.
They tried to deploy that strategy with Bradley Blalock yesterday, but mercifully pulled him after he coughed up 13 hits and 12 runs over just 3.2 innings. Expect a long afternoon for Marquez, and for the San Diego bats to score far more than 3.5 runs on him.
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-145 at Bet365)
No player in the Padres lineup has hit Marquez harder than Manny Machado. We’ve been riding Machado for the last couple of days with great success, and will back him again to exceed 2.5 hits, runs, and RBI.
Machado is slashing .565/.615/.739 over the past seven days with 13 hits, 8 runs, and 4 RBI.
He’s 5-for-7 so far this series, and has recorded at least two hits in four straight games, and five of his last six outings.
The 32-year-old is on pace for the most hits ever by a third baseman at his age. He’s making hard contact at a career-best 56.5% rate and has exceeded this prop line in seven consecutive starts.
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Bases (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re throwing in a bonus pick from the same game. San Diego’s Jackson Merrill is a star in the making and has been tearing the cover off the ball this year. The 22-year-old is slashing 446/.475/.732 in 14 games this season.
He’s 7-for-11 so far this series, with multi-hit efforts in five consecutive games. Merrill is making hard contact at a 51% clip, and his .286 ISO is a top-10 mark in baseball. He’s crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .794 slugging percentage and 1.389 OPS, which is bad news for Marquez and the rest of the Rockies hurlers.
