Today’s a day to call mom, go visit, and then settle in for a pair of Game 4s of the NBA playoffs.
Our picks have been strong lately on the other two series, but not so much these, but like Mom always said, don’t give up.
Both home teams are underdogs today, despite leading each series 2-1. Road teams continue to dominate this round of the playoffs, with two more wins yesterday, making them 9-3 in the conference semifinals.
Thunder at Nuggets Game 4 Odds
Denver leads this series 2-1, but finds itself as underdogs again today. The Nuggets are 5-4-1 against the spread in the playoffs, while OKC is 3-4.
The Thunder have led each of the three games in this series at halftime, and in fact, have led at halftime in 25 of their last 29 games.
OKC has outscored Denver this series. Denver has a two-point win and an OT win. Denver is 5-0 as home underdogs against the Thunder in its last five. The Nuggets are 14-14 as underdogs this season.
Thunder at Nuggets Game 4 Prediction
I have been down on the Nuggets in the playoffs, but it’s time to revisit this strategy. People have talked about how Nuggets star Nikola Jokic has been held in check the last two games, but Denver’s supporting cast has been great. In 2023, when Denver won the title, Jamal Murray averaged 26.1 points. So far this playoffs, he’s at 22.2.
Meanwhile, Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vanished at the end of Game 3.
There’s just something about OKC right now that looks like they can’t get it done when it matters. Denver has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games as home underdogs. I’m starting to believe in Denver and will take the points.
The Pick: Nuggets +6 (-108 at BetMGM)
Cavaliers at Pacers Game 4 Odds
The Cavaliers are 3-0 on the road in the playoffs, with an average margin of victory of 38 points in those games (remember the mauling in Miami?). The road team has covered the spread in each of the last seven games between these two teams. Cleveland is laying 5.5 points today.
These two teams have been my team favorite over bets of the season. Cleveland was 56-33 over/under this season, while Indiana is 48-39-3. Even Mom knows that’s a good return. The first two games of this series went over, while Game 3 missed by a bucket.
Indiana is 5-3 against the spread in the playoffs, while Cleveland is 4-3. The Cavs have been favored in every playoff game this season.
Cavaliers at Pacers Game 4 Odds
Heading into Game 3, I thought Indiana had taken the Cavs heart, but Cleveland came out firing and won comfortably. The return of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley certainly helped.
And someone, please, tell me why Donovan Mitchell isn’t the NBA MVP? Mitchell leads all active scorers in the playoffs at 31.3 points a game, and no one has stopped him all season.
For the majority of the NBA season, Cleveland was the best team, better than the Celtics, the Lakers, and the Pacers. I shouldn’t have forgotten that. I like another Cavaliers blowout today.
The Pick: Cavaliers -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
