That’s more like it. We rebounded Thursday with a perfect MLB player props card to put us well into the black heading into the weekend. One look at Friday’s board and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out which game we’ll be targeting first.
The Rockies, aka baseball’s punching bag, are in action at Coors Field, with Antonio Senzatela on the bump. We’ve had major success over the last few years betting against the 30-year-old, and we’ll be going back to that well tonight.
MLB Player Prop Picks for May 9
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-130 at Bet365)
The Padres are in town this weekend, and bring one of baseball’s best records into action. Manny Machado has been leading the charge recently, and we should expect his success to continue based on the matchup.
Machado is a career .306 hitter in the thin Denver air, over a 235 at-bat sample size. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball this week, posting a .435/.519/.652 slash line since the start of May. Machado has hit safely in six straight games, clearing over 2.5 hits, runs, and RBI in five consecutive outings.
He’s got plenty of history versus Senzatela, and loves hitting against the Colorado righty. Machado is 9-for-23 lifetime against Senzatela, with a home run, 5 RBI, and five extra-base hits.
As for the Rockies starter, he enters play yielding a hard hit rate of 49.2%, one of the highest marks in the National League. He’s coughed up 15 hits and 8 runs in his last 10 innings alone, and has surrendered at least 4 runs in four of his last five appearances.
Patrick Corbin Under 15.5 Outs (-110 at DraftKings)
Next up, we’re betting against this apparent Patrick Corbin resurgence. The 35-year-old is on pace for his best season statistically since 2019, but some of the advanced numbers suggest it’s not sustainable.
Corbin’s velocity is down across each of his four major pitches. He’s generating fewer swings and misses than in 2024, while his called strike rate is the second-lowest mark of his career. Corbin’s hard hit rate allowed is right around his lifetime average, while he’s failing to go deep into games.
That’s part of the reason we’re betting him to go under 15.5 outs this evening. The other reason is that he has to deal with the white-hot Tigers bats. Detroit crossed the plate 29 times during a three-game sweep of the Rockies earlier this week. They rank top-five in scoring, slugging, and OPS, and lead MLB in batting average.
The Tigers also have a great track record versus Corbin. Current Detroit hitters are slashing 295/.306/.541 against the southpaw, with 5 home runs in only 61 at-bats. Corbin has failed to exceed 15.5 outs in three of five 2025 starts, and is a good bet to do so again tonight.
