There are a pair of Game 3s in the NBA tonight with teams facing important questions.
Can the Cavaliers do anything to stop Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers?
Was the Thunder’s 43-point win over Denver in Game 2 an omen or an anomaly?
Did Paul Pierce really walk 20 miles — or whatever it was — after the Celtics Game 2 loss to the Knicks?
We’ve been running to the pay window after the last few NBA picks. I want to keep this hot streak going.
Cavaliers at Pacers Game 3 Odds
The sportsbooks must be watching a different series than I am, because the Cavaliers are three-point favorites tonight, despite being down 2-0 and still possibly missing Darius Garland, DeAndre Hunter, and Evan Mobley (all three are officially questionable).
Indiana is 16-2 in its last 18 games at home and 8-1 against the Cavs against the spread in their last nine meetings.
Cleveland is 3-3 against the spread in the playoffs, while Indiana is 5-2. Indiana is 18-16 as underdogs this season.
Cavaliers at Pacers Game 3 Prediction
I hate the term “must-win” that commentators use about games. There are levels for sure, but every game is a must-win. That said, this is win or else time for Cleveland. After an incredible regular season and getting the top seed in the East, Cleveland is on the brink.
And it’s not so much what Indiana has done, it’s how they have done it. They blew past Cleveland late in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and then somehow, rallied from seven points down with under a minute left in Game 2, with Haliburton draining a step-back three with 1.1 seconds left.
It’s obvious the injuries have zapped the Cavs depth, and they’re fading at the end of these games. Donovan Mitchell can only do so much. I think Cleveland comes out hard, but Indiana stays within striking distance and rallies again. I’ll gladly take the points.
The Pick: Pacers 3.0 (-110 at FanDuel)
Thunder at Nuggets Game 3 Odds
The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites on the road, where they went 32-8 in the regular season. The Thunder are 3-3 against the spread in the playoffs, while the Nuggets are 4-4-1.
OKC has covered 57 of its last 90 games — I’d pay attention to that one. The Thunder have led at halftime in the last six meetings with the Nuggets (prop bet alert). The Thunder have also won three of their last four games in Denver. But Denver is 7-1 as home underdogs against Western Conference teams.
Thunder at Nuggets Game 3 Prediction
Sometimes the data tells you something different than what your eyes see, but in this case, everything lines up. OKC is 68-15 as favorites this season. Denver is 13-14 as underdogs.
I believe the Game 2 outcome was a true indicator of how this series is going to play out. The Thunder banged on Nikola Jokic, and he fouled out of Game 2 in the third quarter in frustration. I know he will get more calls in Denver, but it’s still a smart strategy for Oklahoma City.
OKC had 87 first-half points in Game 2. 87! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 34 points in 30 minutes. Throw out the last three minutes of Game 1, and this series has been all Thunder. I just think they’re better than Denver.
The Pick: Thunder -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
