After a lopsided Game 1 loss, the Miami Heat try to even their first round series in Game 2 tonight in Cleveland.
The Heat, remember the 10 seed who won two Play-In Tournament games, are 34-21 all-time in Game 2s in franchise history, but are double digit underdogs again tonight.
Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers have been the best team in the East all season. They won Game 1 121-100, with standout sixth man Ty Jerome pumping in 28 points.
Can the Heat hang with the Cavs tonight, or is another Cavs win in store?
Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds
Miami is getting 12 or 12.5 points tonight, depending on where you look. That was about the same spread for Game 1, which Cleveland covered easily.
The Cavs are 49-33-1 against the spread this season and 35-7 straight up at Rocket Arena. Miami is 41-43-1 against the spread.
Cleveland has now won the last three meetings between the two teams by 21, five, and 20 points. Five of the last six meetings have hit the over. Head to head, Miami is 6-3 against the number in the last nine times out.
But 12 points or 12.5 points is a lot to consider. I’ll give you another stat: Cleveland is just 4-6 in its last 10 games as double-digit favorites.
Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction
What did we learn from Game 1? It still seems like people don’t recognize how good the Cavaliers are. They come at you in waves – locals call it a “Cavalanche.” They are a lot like the Celtics in that they love to spread the floor and can shoot the three. They were No. 2 in the NBA in three-point percentage at 38 percent this season.
But they also have two quality, athletic bigs who get involved on offense in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. They have a deep bench that knows their roles. Jerome was the star in Game 1, but another Cavs bench standout, Max Strus, was +18 in 21 minutes.
Miami changed the make-up of their team when they traded away Jimmy Butler, but for some reason, Miami fans aren’t as mad as the Dallas fans are, even though Miami could clearly use Butler here. Tyler Herro has become the No. 1 option for Miami on offense. He had 21 in Game 1, but the Heat are going to need more from him.
Bam Adebayo didn’t have a great regular season for Miami, but he can match up with the Cavs inside and had 24 and nine in Game 1.
Heat vs. Cavaliers Pick
I know the general sentiment is that NBA teams can adjust after Game 1, but I think the difference in talent here is too much for Miami to solve. Miami only knows one way to play. They are a defensive-minded team (my favorite stat is how they led the NBA in fouls), and they can try to slow the game down and be physical, but that’s exactly why pace and space basketball was invented. It’s hard to mug a guy when they’re all camped out on the three-point line getting open looks.
Also, you can look at Game 1 and say Cleveland didn’t play that well until the end. And don’t overlook the fact that this is still the No. 1 seed in the East against a 10. I like Cleveland to win in a blowout.
The pick: Cleveland -12 (-108 at DraftKings)
