The Philadelphia Phillies have to start worrying at least a little bit about starting pitcher Aaron Nola.
Throughout the past seven seasons, Nola has been a reliable innings-eater and occasionally an ace. He also has developed a bit of a trend where he alternates between good seasons and mediocre ones.
So far in 2025, he hasn’t even been mediocre. He’s been downright bad, and his stuff is down, indicating that he might have begun his decline. Which would be terrible news, because the Phillies still owe him $24.6 million every year from now until 2030.
Nola’s latest outing actually lowered his ERA, but he took the loss against the New York Mets after allowing four earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. He allowed two home runs to Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, who knocked his team out of the 2024 postseason.
After Monday’s game, manager Rob Thomson was asked if Nola could still be effective pitching at 90 miles per hour, which is close to his average four-seam fastball velocity this season (91.1 mph, per Baseball Savant).
“Absolutely,” Thomson said, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic, “but it won’t stay like this. He’ll pick it up.”
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To hear Nola tell it, though, there’s a lot that needs to change before the Phillies can start feeling confident once again in handing the 31-year-old righty the ball every fifth day.
“I’m 0-5 with a six-and-a-half (ERA),” Nola said, per Gelb. “It’s pretty brutal.”
It’s still early enough in the season that the Phillies can afford to wait out Nola another month or two. But if this trend continues, the starting rotation could suddenly become a target zone for trade upgrades.
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