With just a month in the regular season, the MVP race is coming down to two players. Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have both put forth seasons that are well-deserving of the award. Gilgeous-Alexander has been a favorite in the betting markets, but Jokic may have made up some ground in the past week.
Those two faced off on Sunday and Monday in Oklahoma City, with their teams splitting the matchup. Gilgeous-Alexander played well, averaging 32.5 points on 50 percent shooting despite facing constant double-teams. Jokic put up 29.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists on 58.1 percent from the field, including a dominant 35 points on only 20 shots during the Nuggets’ win Monday.
Those statistics mirrored what has happened all season. Gilgeous-Alexander is going to win the league’s scoring title. That’s the only major statistical edge he has. Jokic ranks in the top three in points, rebounds, and assists. It’s a feat that has never been accomplished in NBA history, and why Jokic said after Monday’s game that he is “playing the best basketball of my life.”
Nobody should complain if Gilgeous-Alexander takes down his first MVP award. But if the voting ended today, Jokic would be more deserving of it.
Nikola Jokic has been the league’s MVP
Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA
Jokic has been the best player in the league over the past few seasons. Somehow, he keeps getting better.
His team was in desperate need of 3-point shooting. So he decided to turn himself into a 43.0 percent shooter from deep this year, ranking sixth in the league. His 29 triple-doubles lead the league by a mile, and he became the first player to post a 30-20-20 game in league history.
Jokic currently ranks in the top three in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game, which has never been done. His own coach said it best. On paper, there’s not really much doubt who is ahead.
Michael Malone: “If you didn’t know Nikola had won 3 MVPs, and I put Player A and Player B on paper… he wins 10 times out of 10. And if you don’t think so, you guys are full of s—.”
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— Steph Noh (@stephnoh.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Gilgeous-Alexander does have an edge defensively, which those raw stats don’t quite capture. The Thunder guard will get some All-Defensive votes this season. He’s been a reason (but not one of the main ones) for a historically elite defense. He has great anticipation, and his knack for getting deflections is a big part of why Oklahoma City turns teams over so frequently.
Jokic surprisingly averages significantly more deflections per game, ranking seventh in the league. He also has great hands and seems to know where the ball is going. But his mobility is an issue, and the Nuggets’ team defense is not close to the Thunder’s.
Jokic’s offensive edge in terms of playmaking, scoring efficiency, and offensive rebounding are much bigger than the edge Gilgeous-Alexander has defensively. In a vacuum, most agree he’s the better player.
Nikola Jokic is more valuable to his team
One of the more prevalent arguments in favor of Gilgeous-Alexander is that he is more valuable to his team. Certainly, the Thunder are better than the Nuggets. Oklahoma City is running away with the No. 1 seed in the West. Denver leads a tight four-team race for No. 2 and is projected to finish with a not-insubstantial 14 fewer wins.
How much of that gap is due to SGA? Are the Thunder better because of him, or because his teammates are far superior to Jokic’s?
Jokic was the lone All-Star on his team this season. Jamal Murray has played much better of late, but it was Jokic single-handedly holding the Nuggets up for the first few months of the year. He’s turned Christian Braun into a solid starter and completely revitalized Russell Westbrook’s career.
Gilgeous-Alexander has had much more help. Jalen Williams was very deservedly named to his first All-Star team. Chet Holmgren probably would have joined him had he not missed so many games.
The depth between the two rosters is not comparable. Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso would be starting on most teams. They are seventh and ninth in minutes per game, coming off a stacked Thunder bench. Peyton Watson and Dario Saric are in those same slots for the Nuggets. Neither player would be able to crack the Thunder’s rotation.
Both Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander hold their teams up when they’re on the floor. One does it much more than the other. Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are 10.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor versus off, ranking in the 92nd percentile of players per Cleaning the Glass. Jokic is on another level — his +23.1 points per 100 possessions ranks in the 100th percentile.
The Nuggets would be a bottom-feeder in the league without Jokic. They’ve gone 2-4 in games he’s missed and been outscored by 201 points while he’s been on the bench. The Thunder would still be a great team in the league without Gilgeous-Alexander. They’ve been able to withstand his loss, going 1-1 in games he’s missed and outscoring opponents by 56 points.
Voters are starting to catch up to Nikola Jokic
ESPN’s MVP straw poll is the gold standard when it comes to predicting who will win the MVP. The midseason edition had Gilgeous-Alexander leading by a comfortable 910-788 margin.
That may not last. The straw poll asks actual MVP voters for their opinions, and several of those voters are changing their minds.
The Ringer polled 10 of their staff, including several actual MVP voters. Nine of them had Jokic as the new front-runner for the award. The Athletic asked five of their writers before Jokic’s masterpiece on Monday. Four were undecided, and one picked Jokic.
Then there are some who are keeping their pick. Stephen A. Smith, who voted for the award last season, said on Tuesday’s edition of First Take that unless Gilgeous-Alexander experiences a massive drop off, he’s getting Smith’s vote.
The MVP award has always been influenced by who closes strong rather than who comes out of the gate quickly. Gilgeous-Alexander was leading before this slate of games. Jokic’s dominance on Monday will stick in voters’ minds. The race is still close enough that either player could win. Jokic will have to continue his statistical dominance and the Nuggets will probably have to finish No. 2 in the West for him to win MVP No. 4.
