In this betting preview:
LA JOLLA, CA — Just 18 days between when Harris English lifted the Farmers trophy and the start of the Genesis Invitational. The terrible wildfires in Los Angeles caused the PGA TOUR to move the tournament from the famous fairways of Riviera Country Club.
One of the best venues (and weeks) on TOUR, let’s hope the people of Pacific Palisades can recover quickly and move past this horrible disaster. In the move to Torrey Pines, Tiger takes his tournament to a place where he has some exceptional history. Woods is a seven time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open and the 2008 US Open; all contested on the Torrey Pines South Course.
Mr. Woods was considering making his 2025 season debut in support of his own event, but alas he withdrew on Monday afternoon. Sidelined by an acute case of the flu mid-tourney last year, Tiger seemed ready to take on his old Torrey stomping grounds.
I’ve seen Tiger swinging in person at TGL. He appears to be in the best health we have seen since the 2021 crash. In the end, the loss of his mother, possibly the forecast, and his health led to a late withdrawal. He was replaced in the field by Jake Knapp.
This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Genesis Invitational winners, finishing positions, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Genesis Invitational 2025 expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Ludvig Åberg (+2200 on FanDuel)
When I arrived on property, Ludvig Åberg was my first concern. I’m happy to report, the kid is healthy and the game is tailor made for this venue. Even in the harsh conditions of round two at the Farmers last month, Ludvig gained almost three strokes on the field with his ball striking.
As we later found out, he didn’t even feel well during that round! Åberg is on a short list of the world’s best OTT, and you will need to be an elite driver of the golf ball to contend this week. Ranked second in the field for par 4 scoring and third T2G it is time for his first signature win.
Best bet to place in the top 30: Justin Rose (+150 on DraftKings)
This event is going to feel very similar to the conditions these guys faced at the AT&T (Pebble Beach) two weeks ago. Justin Rose finished T3 and played incredible golf in difficult conditions.
That performance reminded me of his runner-up finish at Royal Troon last summer. Rose is the 2019 Farmers’ winner. The weather will again be bad and he’s showing solid form. Take the prop bet and build your bankroll.
Best head-to-head bet: Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler (+120 on bet365)
In two 2025 starts, Scottie Scheffler has been average OTT and ARG; two of his many superpowers. I know Scottie’s average is well above the TOUR standard, but Rory McIlroy is an equally talented player. Rory’s recent form, and considering the climate this week, I’m going to take McIlroy over Scheffler.
It’s a risk, but from what I’ve seen of Scheffler the last two weeks on-site, the recovery is just not there and McIlroy looks midseason. When we get to Bay Hill it will be Scottie by a million, but for now let’s take advantage of the odds in this matchup.
Genesis Invitational 2025 live odds to win
Odds courtesy of FanDuel. Showing odds shorter than +10000.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
| Rory McIlroy | +650 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
| Justin Thomas | +1800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2200 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2200 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3300 |
| Sungjae Im | +3500 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | +4000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +4000 |
| Tony Finau | +4000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +4000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +4500 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4500 |
| Shane Lowry | +4500 |
| Will Zalatoris | +5000 |
| Jason Day | +5000 |
| Sam Burns | +5000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +5000 |
| Tom Kim | +5000 |
| Sepp Straka | +5000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +5500 |
| Thomas Detry | +5500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +6000 |
| Russell Henley | +6000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +6000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +7000 |
| Cameron Young | +7000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +7500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +7500 |
| Adam Scott | +7500 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +8000 |
| J.T. Poston | +8000 |
| Sahith Theegala | +8000 |
| Samuel Stevens | +8000 |
| Harris English | +9000 |
| Daniel Berger | +9000 |
Genesis Invitational 2025: Betting preview
Elite drivers win at Torrey Pines. Sounds simple and it is. The South Course has very small greens and long tight fairways. This is a US Open venue. By driving the ball in play and far, you can create a significant edge. Sixteen of the top 24 players were ranked in the top 25 in SG:OTT at the Farmers.
That was more of a concentration at the top than any other primary strokes gained category. Here’s what makes that statistical analysis even more impactful. The South Course is really hard to gain strokes OTT. This is one of THE toughest driving courses on the PGA TOUR.
If you can gain strokes with your driver on the field, you have a decided advantage. English, Novak, Stevens, Pendrith, these guys are all great drivers of the golf ball. Take a look at the SG:OTT leaders from 2025 and 2024 below. The foundation of our Genesis card are these players.
- 2024: Cam Champ, Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Dougherty, Rory McIlroy, Min Woo Lee, Patrick Fishburn, Keith Mitchell, Jhonny Vegas, Rico Hoey, Xander Schauffele
- 2025: Anders Albertson, Aldrich Potgieter, Taylor Pendrith, Keith Mitchell, Alejandro Tosti, Takumi Kanaya, Daniel Berger, Luke Clanton(a), Kevin Yu, Shane Lowry, Bob MacIntyre
Around the green acumen played an important role three weeks ago due to the wind. Players were missing their targets left and right and the leaders were saving pars and scoring on the par 5s. With the weather forecast, we should favor short game on the South Course again. The wet conditions will be difficult when you miss fairways and cannot hit GIRs. There are a couple players who have really strong short games that also drive the ball very well. It’s not a popular combination, and that helps us eliminate a number of candidates.
We usually have to wait a year before we come back to a venue. In that time, we forget things. There were so many putts missed from close range at Torrey a couple weeks ago. That Poa “pops” and it gets really bumpy. Players not only have to be patient, but they also have to get a little lucky.
Remember the famous winning Tiger putt on 18 at the 2008 US Open? I’ll never forget that close-up and how much the ball was bouncing. If you don’t remember, please take a look – Tiger at Torrey. That’s what these guys are dealing with and that putt happened in June. What do you think these surfaces are like after two days of rain and then a thousand footprints each day? Officials also remarked the greens will be 8-10 inches slower than three weeks ago.
Just take the best Poa putters and trust they will make the most consistent rolls, have the shortest memories, and be lucky enough to have one or two lip in just as Woods did so many years ago. Par 4 scorers are great everywhere, but I favor the par-5 scorers even more at Torrey.
That’s the easiest place to score on the South Course and those “5-guys” also have the best skill set combination. Great par 5 players drive it long, and hit their long approaches accurately. They can scramble to make birdie after getting near the green in two and they make putts. Presented like that, it makes great sense.
Those long iron approaches are the last major player characteristic I’m looking for. When Danny Willet, Francisco Molinari, and Viktor Hovland start showing up on lists, then you know it’s a long stick challenge. In soft conditions with less than average roll out, there’s easily 10-12 approaches over 200 yards for most of the field. Bomb it down there a little further off the tee and it’s a big advantage. Take a look at our par chart for the South Course again.
- Par 3 – 200-225
- Par 4 – 450-500
- Par 5 – 550-600
In great conditions, you need some serious bogey avoidance skills around this course. The next couple of days will be even more challenging. I want scramblers who can get the ball in the hole in the least number of strokes from 50 yards and in. Our winning score is going to be in that 8-10 under par range. A healthy balance of birdies over bogeys is needed to contend. We want guys who can make birdies, but an even better match would be those who can score and save with a wedge in hand.
Elite driver, par 5s, long irons, Poa putters, and short game savvy gives us a very short list of contenders. Course history helped me eliminate a couple more along with their performances at Pebble. These conditions are going to be very similar. Remember I was at Pebble and I’m here at Torrey. Hundreds of miles apart, these two climates feel eerily similar. ]
I’d love to bet Rory this week. His recent form and record over the last 10 US Opens is impressive (six straight top 10s). At +700, we’re not going there, but I will be watching him closely as we did Scottie last week in the desert. Looking past both of them further down the board, we have a couple competitors I’m really excited to wager on. We lost Riviera this week, but we didn’t lose any difficulty. I guarantee the Genesis will still deliver even in San Diego.
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Genesis Invitational 2025: Course and conditions
Seventy-two players are competing for $20 million and a $4 million dollar first-place check. Unlike most of the signature series, the Genesis has a 36-hole cut. The API and Memorial own the same cut as well. The top 50 and ties (or anyone within 10 shots of the lead) reserve the right to play the weekend.
A unique twist for these four-day money grabs, 17 players were cut last year from the Riviera field. Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sepp Straka were on that list that missed the final two rounds. Even though Hideki Matsuyama is our defending champion, a large majority of what happened last year just doesn’t matter.
Sixty-two of the top 72 in the OWGR are on the South Course property. Four players in the field are Torrey rookies (Tom Kim, Nick Dunlap, Rasmus Højgaard, and Danny List). Matthieu Pavon won here on his inaugural trip (2024), but overall a little history along these cliffs is an impactful factor. The South Course at 7,765 yards is the longest course on the PGA TOUR.
I spoke with the PGA TOUR officials on property. They have no plans to significantly change the “Farmers” scorecard. The par and length will remain the same as it was three weeks ago. I thought they might shift the par as they do for the US Open, but ultimately they kept the card the same. They are going to get creative with hole locations. One example, they plan to use the 2008 Sunday US Open pin as a homage to the tournament host.
Three weeks ago, the conditions were pretty wild in round two and three at Torrey. Winds whipped the shoreline and even the easier North Course played three strokes over par. The brutal South was equally tough and ejected a good number of favorites from the final 36-hole festivities.
The weather is once again going to be challenging. Storms are predicted Wednesday through Friday. La Jolla has barely seen 0.5″ of rain in 2025, and we have 1.5″ in the forecast for this week! Temperatures will get into the low-60s, and the wind seems much calmer than three weeks ago. When the guys faced the South Course in January, it was much firmer. By the time they take on this US Open layout tomorrow it will play much differently.
Even though Tiger’s withdrawal mentions the loss of his mother, these conditions will be difficult for the first couple of days. Damp air and seaside rain are not a successful recipe for his body. Let’s just hope he grabs another start prior to the Masters in April. The rain came in last night and is expected to stay until the weekend. Long wet rough and softer greens drastically change the playability from Farmers just a few weeks ago.
Torrey’s main traits are well known:
- Small greens that seem unreachable on every hole (average 5,000 sq/ft).
- Three par 3s well over 200 yards and a plethora of par 4s over 450 yards.
- Eighty-three bunkers seem to cause even more havoc and then there’s the rough.
The rough was a little wispy two weeks ago, and now it’s well-fed and juicy. Officials cut it to 3.5” on Monday and it won’t get touched again. My dog’s coat isn’t this thick. We just had a signature setup 10 days ago in similar conditions, yet a totally different test of golf. Pebble Beach is the third-shortest course on TOUR, while Torrey is the longest. The funny thing: Rory won going away on Sunday and he’s the best driver in this Genesis field.
What, if anything, can we gain from the AT&T? I think it tells us a ton. Pebble Beach also has the seaside Poa Annua to putt on and caused these guys to really control their ball flight. Don’t let a player slip by just because he didn’t compete in the desert. Going to the South Course is a great early-season examination. Much like Riviera CC, you MUST be great T2G. Once again, you have my on-site observations to help you build an optimal betting card.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 37 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
