Man City winger Savinho said it best ahead of their first Champions League knockout playoff match this season.
“We, as Manchester City, can’t play in the playoffs. We should be getting into the next round more convincingly and not find ourselves in a playoff,” he said, before turning the same mentality on their opponents too. “Real Madrid, with all the weight their shirt carries, shouldn’t be in the playoffs either.”
Two giants of Europe, considered the two betting favorites ahead of the competition, find themselves matched up way earlier than expected as they get set for the first of two legs at the Etihad Stadium.
Both clubs finished below the Round of 16 bye cut, with Man City barely qualifying for the knockouts at all. By the end of next week, one of these powerhouses will be eliminated from the competition entirely, far earlier than anyone would have thought.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Man City vs. Real Madrid prediction, odds
Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and longshot fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2024, he has correctly predicted 55% of 387 match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans for a total profit of 32.6 units.
- Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (+185 on DraftKings)
- Score prediction: Man City 1-3 Real Madrid
Just like against Arsenal, which we correctly tipped as a big Gunners win, this is quite simply a terrible matchup for Manchester City, even at home.
The biggest weakness for this flawed City side is their vulnerability to the press and inability to stop counter-attacks, both things that Real Madrid do exceptionally well. Jude Bellingham is a high work-rate presser in midfield, and Madrid’s counter-attacks are some of the deadliest in Europe.
Even with the deadline day addition of former Barcelona youngster Nico Gonzalez, it’s hard to see Man City stopping this Madrid side, even as Carlo Ancelotti has his own flawed squad to piece together. The fact the visitors are nearly 2/1 moneyline underdogs is an incredible opportunity for value.
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| Man City win | +130 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Real Madrid win | +185 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -235 N: +185 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: +110 U: -155 |
| Real Madrid to advance |
-140 |
| Man City to advance |
+110 |
Man City vs. Real Madrid match facts
- Date: Tuesday, February 11, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, Englnad)
- Referee: Clement Turpin (FRA)
- Last meeting: Man City 1-1 Real Madrid (Apr. 17, 2024 | Champions League)
MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Man City vs. Real Madrid
Man City vs. Real Madrid best bet
Even as they get a high number of shots themselves, Man City are conceding opposition shots at a hefty total, rendering this a doable bar for Real Madrid to reach.
Last time out over the weekend, City conceded 13 shots to League One Leyton Orient in the FA Cup even as they collected 24 themselves. They conceded 12 shots to Club Brugge in a game City themselves had to win and were chasing for a while, and they conceded 26 shots to attacking powerhouses PSG in their 4-2 UCL road defeat.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, ripped off 23 shots in the Madrid derby over the weekend and 21 against Espanyol in their controversial road defeat. This feels more than reasonable.
Man City vs. Real Madrid prop bet
- Pick: Rodrygo to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +140 (FanDuel)
With Real Madrid slated as high-value underdogs, their goal scorer numbers are juicy as well, especially with Erling Haaland — who has never scored in four career games against Real Madrid — the betting favorite.
One player stands out as a fantastic play, with both the form and history to be a strong contender: Rodrygo.
Vinicius Jr. looks to have taken a step back after his long injury and suspension layoff, but his Brazilian teammate is in great form. Rodrygo has a brace in each of Real Madrid’s last two UCL league phase games, plus three goals and five assists in his past seven league matches, and a goal in each of his previous two European games against Man City.
Even in his most recent two league games, where he hasn’t scored or assisted, he’s combined for six shots and seven chances created, meaning he’s consistently involved regardless of end product. Always overshadowed by the superstars in the Madrid squad, Rodrygo’s +380 anytime goal scorer odds are delicious, but a hedge to include a potential assist still at strong plus odds is the play here.
