As they welcome Tottenham to Anfield for the second leg of their Carabao Cup semifinal, Liverpool are up against something that they haven’t faced much this 2024/25 season — adversity.
The Reds sit atop the Premier League standings and finished first in the UEFA Champions League league phase, enjoying a remarkable season that has come with few trials and tribulations.
Yet they trail 1-0 on aggregate after a first-leg defeat to an injury-stricken Spurs side that mustered an impressive performance to put themselves in front last month.
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The task remains tall for Tottenham to finish the deal on the road, especially as they are still saddled with a huge number of injury absences and have limped their way through the season at every turn.
Liverpool vs. Tottenham prediction, odds
Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and longshot fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2024, he has correctly predicted 54.5% of 389 match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans for a total profit of 68.5 units.
- Moneyline lean: Liverpool (-425 on DraftKings)
- Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Tottenham
The return of Micky van de Ven was to be a significant addition for Tottenham, as the Dutchman is a true difference-maker at the back. Then Ange Postecoglou confirmed he would hold van de Ven back from participation, even though he was also rested over the weekend.
It’s a huge mistake. Sure, van de Ven has been injury prone in his time at Spurs, but with the season lost, this is the most important match of the season. He was rested on the weekend, so if he’s healthy, why not put him on the field?
Spurs should absolutely be praised for their first-leg performance, which was impressive on its own even without the context of their injury crisis, but repeating that effort at a hostile environment such as Anfield feels too big an ask. The signing of Mathys Tel is exciting, but it’s a lot to ask for him to have a notable debut against the world’s most in-form team on the road.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| Liverpool win | -425 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Tottenham win | +900 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -150 N: +110 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: -150 U: +110 |
| Liverpool to advance |
-320 |
| Tottenham to advance |
+230 |
Liverpool vs. Tottenham match facts
- Date: Thursday, February 6, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Anfield Stadium (Liverpool, England)
- Referee: Craig Pawson
- Last meeting: Tottenham 1-0 Liverpool (Jan. 8, 2025 | EFL Cup semifinal first leg)
MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Liverpool vs. Tottenham
Liverpool vs. Tottenham best bet
- Pick: Liverpool -2 goal handicap
- Odds: -115 (DraftKings)
It was thought that Micky van de Ven’s return would help Spurs keep a lid on this game. Instead, Postecoglou is going to keep him back.
In the 860 Premier League minutes logged by Van de Ven, Spurs have conceded just 11 goals, or 1.1 goals per 90 minutes of play. Without his influence, they’ve conceded 26 goals across 1,540 minutes, or around 1.5 goals per game. To put that in context, 1.1 goals per game would give Spurs the third-best defensive record in the Premier League right now, while 1.5 would put them 12th.
Postecoglou has his first-choice defenders healthy but won’t use them, so he’ll have to sit back and watch his patchwork back line get picked apart by one of the best attacking teams in Europe.
Liverpool vs. Tottenham prop bet
While Tottenham may do their best to keep Liverpool from scoring, there won’t be much they can do about the Reds ripping off shots. Liverpool have made the most attempts of any Premier League club this season, while Spurs have conceded fifth-most since the start of December when their injury list began to become unbearable.
The problem is, unfortunately, that the betting market expects the home side to run riot over an injury-riddled Spurs, thus inflating the expected Liverpool shot total to an insane mark of 23. While they probably can — and very well may — reach that mark, it’s simply too high for us to play at even money, especially considering Spurs held Liverpool to just 14 efforts in the first leg.
Even the player totals are incredibly high, but one individual may stand out above the rest. Cody Gakpo has earned an increasing share of the Liverpool attacking volume in recent months: with just seven total shots through the end of October league play, Gakpo has registered three shots in a match on seven occasions since.
The Dutchman attempted three in his 60 minutes against Spurs in the first leg, and he will be instrumental in any kind of turnaround for Liverpool in this game. This is an exceedingly high bar to clear, especially with so many quality forwards in the lineup, but he could absolutely manage it.
