Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will take on Saquon Barkley and the Eagles in Super Bowl 59, with Kansas City looking to become both the first team in NFL history to three-peat and the first team to win four Super Bowls in five years.
Mahomes once again has his fingerprints all over this run to the Big Game, so it should come as no surprise that he’s one of the hottest names on the player prop market.
MORE SUPER BOWL 59 BETTING:
Odds, lines, spreads & totals | Sporting News experts make their picks & predictions
Whether you love him or hate him, everyone can agree that the three-time Super Bowl MVP makes this dynasty go — and he also cashes a ton of player prop bets when the lights shine the brightest.
Let’s take to the player prop market on DraftKings Sportsbook, assess the value of every major Mahomes over/under, and unveil our betting advice for each one.
Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Super Bowl 59: Passing yards
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mahomes OVER 251.5 passing yards: -109 | Mahomes UNDER 251.5 passing yards: -112
The Eagles surrendered an NFC-low 192 passing yards per game this season, and Mahomes has averaged just 211 passing yards per game this postseason. So, with most QBs in this situation, the easy play here would be the UNDER. But, as we all know, Patrick Mahomes is not “most QBs.”
Mahomes regularly rises to the challenge against the best defenses, and he’s coming off a 245-yard AFC title game victory in which he accounted for three total touchdowns (1 via the air, 2 via the ground). He won’t likely rack up 43 rushing yards and two rushing scores again, and KC doesn’t have the luxury of home-field advantage this time around, so the OVER here feels like a strong bet.
Over his four Super Bowl starts, Mahomes has averaged 267.8 passing yards. Over the Eagles’ past two playoff games, they have surrendered an average of 271 passing yards. That’s good enough for us, but we understand if you want to play it a little safer. You can get Mahomes 225-plus passing yards and two-plus passing TDs at -122.
Sporting News best bet: Mahomes OVER 251.5 passing yards (-109) or Mahomes 225+ pass. yards and 2+ pass. TDs (-110)
MORE EXPERT SUPER BOWL 59 BETTING ADVICE:
Bill Bender’s moneyline pick | Vinnie Iyer’s ATS prediction
Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Super Bowl 59: Passing touchdowns
Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs: -175 | Mahomes UNDER 1.5 passing TDs: +142
Mahomes has now started 20 playoff games over his incredible career, and he has thrown two or more touchdowns in 13 of the past 19. He somehow only has one passing TD in each of the Chiefs’ past two games, but that means that he’s due more so than it means he has digressed.
Mahomes did most of his scoring damage on the ground against Buffalo, with his rushing TDs accounting for two of the Chiefs’ four red-zone TDs. As you’ll soon learn in the next section, it’s very unlikely that he will rush for two TDs again. It’s also not likely Kareem Hunt will rack up 70 yards and a TD against this Philly D as he did two weeks ago vs. a soft Bills run D.
If a KC three-peat is our destiny, Mahomes will need to pass for at least two TDs. We might even alt-bet him to pass for three or more (+212). He did just that vs. Philadelphia in Super Bowl 57 two years ago, and he’s done it eight total times throughout his postseason career. Another three-TD Super Bowl win and the GOAT discussions will start to get reaaaaally interesting.
Sporting News best bets: Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-175). Or, Mahomes 3+ passing TDs at +212. And don’t forget about our aforementioned mini-parlay: Mahomes 225+ pass. yards and 2+ pass. TDs (-110)
Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Super Bowl 59: Rushing yards and TDs
Mahomes OVER 29.5 rushing yards: -114 | Mahomes UNDER 29.5 rushing yards: -107 | Mahomes anytime TD scorer: +310 | Mahomes 2+ TD scorer: +2500
We’re leaning UNDER on Mahomes’ 30-yard rushing projection, as the Chiefs won’t want their star QB putting himself in a situation that could leave him injured. The three-time Super Bowl MVP has also reached 30 rushing yards just four times in Kansas City’s 18 games since the start of the season.
Recency bias will have casual bettors smashing the OVER here since Mahomes rushed for 43 yards against Buffalo in the AFC title game. Philly also surrendered 48 yards to Jayden Daniels last week, and 81 to the dynamic rookie in Week 16 of the regular season. But no other QB besides the rook has even reached 14 rushing yards against Philly since mid-December, and the only QBs all season to exceed 29 rushing yards vs. Philadelphia were Daniels and Lamar Jackson.
Newsflash: those are two of the best mobile QBs ever — Mahomes is not. Bet him to score a rushing TD — $10 will net you $31 if he breaks pay dirt — or even put a lotto-ticket wager on him to score two-plus TDs (+2500 for something he just did last game!?). But don’t bet him to hit 30 yards on the ground.
Sporting News best bet: Mahomes UNDER 29.5 rushing yards (-107); Or, fade the over/under entirely and bet Mahomes anytime TD (+310) or put a small wager on Mahomes 2+ TDs (+2500)
