The NFL’s version of the Elite Eight is set, and we are going to be treated to some showstopping matchups in this weekend’s divisional round. The headliner, of course, will be the clash of two MVP favorites, with quarterback Lamar Jackson taking his Baltimore Ravens to Buffalo for a matchup against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Though that game will steal a lot of the spotlight, the other three games could be thrilling, too. Jeff Howe breaks down each of the four divisional-round matchups this weekend before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals the odds each team has to win the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) vs. No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7, 1-0 playoffs)
Be careful what you wish for, AFC West.
So much for the idea the Texans would offer little resistance after a late-season tailspin, as they blew out the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 to earn a trip to Kansas City. Though the Texans will be big-time underdogs, they just played one of their best games of the season and will feel confident against the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.
Plus, the Texans kept it tight at Arrowhead in Week 16, falling 27-19 even as they were limping to the finish line. Quarterback C.J. Stroud finished 23-of-39 passing for 244 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in that game.
But do the Texans deserve style points for keeping it close with the Chiefs? After all, the Chiefs were 11-0 this season in one-possession games, and they’ve won 16 in a row when it’s close. They haven’t lost a one-possession game since Christmas 2023.
So, yeah, the Texans can look back on the last meeting and wonder what might have happened if a play or two had gone the other way, but the Chiefs have become the best team on the planet — with room to spare — in those decisive moments.
The Texans need to start fast to put pressure on the hosts, as the Chiefs haven’t played a meaningful game since Christmas, when they locked up the AFC’s No. 1 seed. If the Chiefs are going to be vulnerable at any point, it figures to be at the start as they shake off a little rust.
The Chiefs are 15-3 in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes as their starter. They’re also 8-2 against the Texans under coach Andy Reid, including 2-0 in a pair of playoff games that were decided by a combined 50 points. Meanwhile, the Texans will be looking to pull off another franchise first, as they’re 0-5 in the divisional round.
• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 22.7%
• Texans’ chances to win Super Bowl: 3.7%
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 1-0 playoffs)
These teams have been on a divisional round collision course since the Ravens wrangled the AFC North lead from the Pittsburgh Steelers. And after ending the Steelers’ season by a 28-14 count Saturday, the Ravens have earned themselves a trip to Buffalo.
The Ravens won’t lack confidence. They blew out the Bills 35-10 at home in Week 4 and have outscored their opponents 163-57 during their five-game winning streak. Jackson has accounted for 15 touchdowns and one interception over that stretch. He gets style points for twice dominating the Steelers, who had historically given him fits before the last pair of demolitions.
Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens take down the Steelers 28-14 to advance to the divisional round 💪
◻️ Jackson | 175 YDS | 2 TDS
◻️ Henry | 186 YDS | 2 TDS pic.twitter.com/jNED1bxLw3— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 12, 2025
Allen, meanwhile, finished 20-of-26 passing for 272 yards and two touchdowns along with 46 rushing yards in the Bills’ 31-7 win against the Denver Broncos. And to think, the Bills even started slowly.
Ball security, as usual, will be in focus. The Bills were a league-best plus-24 in the turnover department during the regular season, as they finished third with 32 takeaways and first with only eight giveaways. And they surprisingly smoked the Broncos without forcing a turnover, which was just the second time that happened this season.
The Steelers ranked second (plus-16) in turnover differential, though, and the Ravens had no issues breezing through their rivals in a turnover-free game.
The Bills won these teams’ only postseason matchup four years ago, 17-3.
• Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 12.4%
• Ravens’ chances to win Super Bowl: 10.7%
Chances to win the Super Bowl
NFC
No. 1 Detroit Lions (15-2) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 1-0 playoffs)
The Lions staved off a season’s worth of hunters, successfully navigating a challenging schedule to earn the NFC’s top seed and an undoubtedly raucous home-field advantage.
And for their first test, they draw a Commanders squad that just knocked off one of the two teams that won in Detroit this season. The transitive property has little use in the NFL, but there is something to be said for a young, inexperienced, self-confident Commanders team that doesn’t know what it doesn’t know.
As for the Lions, they were the most dominant team in the regular season, outscoring their opponents by 222 points — 62 more than the second-ranked Philadelphia Eagles — and it starts with the franchise’s first top-ranked scoring offense in 50 years.
Quarterback Jared Goff’s career resurgence continued with his best season. He completed 72.4 percent of his passes for 4,629 yards, 37 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Of course, he’s been aided by one of the best offensive lines in the league, and running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 3,045 yards from scrimmage and 32 total touchdowns.
The Lions defense has been crushed by injuries throughout the season, notably losing star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit tallied just 37 sacks, tied for the ninth fewest, but it racked up two QB takedowns and 10 hits in the crucial finale against the Minnesota Vikings to lock up the NFC North title. The Lions will need a lot more of that to rattle rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
The Commanders didn’t punt or turn it over in their upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, and Daniels finished a masterful 24-of-35 passing for 268 yards and two touchdowns to go along with a team-high 36 rushing yards.
One thing feels certain: Fourth down will play a pivotal role in the outcome. The Lions were 22 of 33 on fourth down in the regular season, as they were the only playoff team to be ranked in the top 10 of fourth-down attempts — a stat that showcases how volume is most often associated with necessity rather than aggressiveness.
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The Commanders, meanwhile, were 20 of 23 in the regular season for an 87 percent conversion rate that easily led the NFL. They were also 3 of 5 against the Bucs, and they took control of that game with Daniels’ fourth-down touchdown pass to wideout Terry McLaurin in the final quarter.
The Commanders are coming off their first playoff win in 19 years, so the Lions know how they feel a season after their own first playoff victory in 32 years.
The Commanders are 3-0 in the playoffs against the Lions, but they haven’t met on this stage in a quarter century.
• Lions’ chances to win Super Bowl: 23%
• Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 3.7%
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 1-0 playoffs)
The Eagles were shaky on offense in quarterback Jalen Hurts’ return from a two-game absence due to a concussion, but they thoroughly dismantled the Green Bay Packers 22-10 nonetheless.
It’s nice to have the top-ranked overall defense and second-ranked scoring defense to pick up the slack when the other group is out of sync. It helps to win the turnover margin by a 4-0 count.
That’s what has made the Eagles so tough. They routinely sign up for a 60-minute bar fight. And even when the stars on offense aren’t dominating, they’re still doing enough to get a win. Running back Saquon Barkley tallied 119 rushing yards — his lowest output since Week 15 and a relatively pedestrian output for the ninth 2,000-yard rusher in history — and Hurts still came through with 131 passing yards, two touchdowns, 36 rushing yards and no turnovers.
It wasn’t perfect, but it was a winning formula.
And then there’s the Rams, who might not have the household name recognition of their last Super Bowl squad, but they’re coming alive under one of the league’s elite coaching staffs. The Rams hammered the Vikings 27-9 Monday night to win their first playoff game since hoisting the Lombardi Trophy three years ago.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford bounced back after scuffling down the stretch of an otherwise strong regular season. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 209 yards and two scores against the Vikings, propelling the Rams past that vaunted 14-3 wild-card opponent after a trying week with the California wildfires.
More impressive, the Rams tallied nine sacks — an NFL playoff game record — forced two turnovers and got a defensive touchdown with Jared Verse’s fumble recovery in the second quarter. Chris Shula’s defense has been rolling as of late, allowing an average of 8.3 points per game with seven takeaways over their last four outings, excluding the regular-season finale when they rested key players.
The Rams likely need to win the turnover battle to pull off the upset. The Eagles gave it away eight times in their first four games of the season but have only seven in their last 14 outings.
The Eagles have beaten the Rams each of the past two regular seasons. The Rams are 2-1 against the Eagles in the postseason, but they haven’t seen each other in the playoffs in 23 years.
• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 17.6%
• Rams’ chances to win Super Bowl: 6.2%
(Photo of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen: Michael Owens / Getty Images)
