What will Week 17 bring for Sporting News’ NFL picks and predictions against the spread?
Will there be a lot of great gifts that bring good tidings and joy, or will there be only a lump of coal in our stockings?
Here’s diving right into a busy holiday week of games, with almost a full slate of days involved.
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(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
NFL picks against the spread for Week 17
Christmas Day games
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Chiefs (-2.5) at Steelers
Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET, Netflix
The Chiefs’ defense gets a break with a sputtering Steelers’ offense, which will hope the return of George Pickens (hamstring) gets Russell Wilson back on track. The Chiefs’ defense will erase the run again and leave Wilson in uncomfortable situations trying to outscore a red-hot Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-17 and cover the spread.
MORE NFL WEEK 17:
Wednesday, 4;30 p.m. ET, Netflix
The Texans are limping toward the finish line with a beefy part of their conference schedule. With some key injuries, there’s little upside to them winning here, while the Ravens are more motivated to steal back the AFC North lead from the Steelers for good.
Pick: Ravens win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE NFL CHRISTMAS NEWS:
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Upset of the Week: Seahawks (-3.5) at Bears
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Seahawks have plenty working offensively, but there’s a changing of a guard in the new passing scheme with Jaxon Smith-Njigba taking over as the top receiver and Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet trying to keep the running game respectable. The Bears’ offense keeps coming to life more with Caleb Williams and will come through with enough points as primetime home underdogs.
Pick: Bears win 27-24.
MORE: Seahawks playoff outlook after loss vs. Vikings
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Lock of the Week: Chargers (-5) over Patriots
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Chargers tend to take care of bad teams under Jim Harbaugh. The Patriots qualify as such. Los Angeles will keep it simple with Justin Herbert throwing downfield, the power running game handling ample touches, and an attacking defense harassing Drake Maye. The long road trip won’t faze them, as the Chargers seem to operate better as nomads away from their lack of home-field edge in Los Angeles.
Pick: Chargers win 24-10 and cover the spread.
MORE: Chargers playoff outlook after win vs. Broncos
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Bengals can see their once longshot playoff chances inching toward reality. All it takes is a win here and a little bit of reasonable help with the Broncos, Colts, and Dolphins losing once otherwise. Joe Burrow won’t waste this chance to keep carrying his team at home.
Pick: Bengals win 34-24 and cover the spread.
MORE BRONCOS: Broncos playoff outlook after loss vs. Chargers
MORE BENGALS: Joe Burrow ‘looked like Superman’ in record-setting performance | Bengals playoff outlook
Saturday 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Rams are doing it again late in the season, showing just how good Sean McVay continues to be with a team in transition. The veteran offense was doing more damage, but lately, the youthful defense has been carrying more of the winning burden. The Cardinals with Kyler Murray are trending in the wrong direction.
Pick: Rams win 24-17 and cover the spread.
MORE RAMS: Rams playoff outlook after win vs. Jets
MORE CARDINALS: James Conner injury update
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills got too close for comfort against the Patriots, having a bit of a sloppy divisional home game with Josh Allen going from white hot to rather ice cold. The Jets also stopped their offensive momentum vs. the Rams. Something has to give, and it’s easy to trust Allen over Aaron Rodgers this season.
Pick: Bills win 30-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Josh Allen injury update
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This was supposed to be a Derek Carr revenge game. Now, it’s two teams that have much to figure out at quarterback next season. The Saints have a little more punch with interim coach Darren Rizzi than the Raiders have with former interim coach Antonio Pierce.
Pick: Saints win 20-17 and cover the spread.
MORE: Antonio Pierces brushes off question about NFL Draft positioning
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Jonathan Taylor was determined to go off against the Titans to make up for having that ugly non-scoring effort against the Broncos. The result was breaking 200 rushing yards and three TDs. He should want to build on that to finish strong, given he returns to his home state of New Jersey, where he was a high school star two hours south of MetLife.
Pick: Colts win 31-24 and cover the spread.
MORE: Jonathan Taylor atones for last week’s mistake with big game, ironic celebration | Colts playoff outlook
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles are hoping Jalen Hurts will have enough time to clear concussion protocol and return after missing most of the Commanders game. They will lean a lot on Saquon Barkley regardless to wear down fellow Penn Stater Micah Parsons and a hard-fighting Cowboys defense.
Pick: Eagles win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE EAGLES: Jalen Hurts injury update | Saquon Barkley rushing record tracker
MORE COWBOYS: Cowboys eliminated from playoff contention despite win vs. Bucs
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Panthers at Buccaneers (-8)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Bryce Young has been on an incredible stretch, proving to the Panthers that he should be their starting QB in 2025 and beyond. That started with him playing well against the Bucs in Week 13. But the Bucs will rebound to stop their skid here and keep pace in the NFC South.
Pick: Buccaneers win 30-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Buccaneers playoff outlook after loss vs. Cowboys
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans and Jaguars might as well be the same team with the same record in the AFC South. This is a really a coin flip in a matchup between former Steelers QB Mason Rudolph, who didn’t deliver before Christmas, and former Patriots QB Mac Jones, who also didn’t win last week. Flip a coin and it lands on the home team.
Pick: Jaguars win 23-20 and cover the spread.
NFL DRAFT NEWS:
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Dolphins (-6.5) at Browns
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns don’t have enough offense beyond Jerome Ford to be very competitive here, as Myles Garrett and the defense have been worn down and breaking down. The Dolphins got off the mat to pound the 49ers and will stay relentless offensively around Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Dolphins win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Tyreek Hill explains ugly drops vs. 49ers | Dolphins playoff outlook
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Packers at Vikings (-1.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings have won eight consecutive games, but they have had some close calls, including Week 16 in Seattle. Back at home, they face a Green Bay defense that can contain their passing game a bit, and the offense will warm up Jordan Love on the road with no elements.
Pick: Packers win 27-24.
MORE: How Eagles loss impacts race for NFC’s No. 1 seed
(Todd Kirkland/Jonathan Bachman)
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Falcons at Commanders (-4)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
Michael Penix Jr. didn’t have a huge game in his starting rookie debut, but he facilitated Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ running game well and made sure there were some clutch throws to improve the level of complementary football. He’ll be game for a duel with fellow first-round QB Jayden Daniels, but Daniels has the better prime-time matchup at home and has proven to have a much higher ceiling.
Pick: Commanders win 34-27 and cover the spread.
MORE COMMANDERS: Jayden Daniels ends OROY race, starts Commanders’ Super Bowl hype
MORE FALCONS: Falcons playoff outlook after win vs. Giants
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
The Lions are more limping than leaping defensively, but their offense again has adjusted to carry a bigger burden of winning. This current state of the 49ers’ offense and defense isn’t enough to trust they can outscore them again, massive comeback or not, in a disappointing rematch of last season’s NFC championship game.
Pick: Lions win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Jared Goff shakes off cold-weather criticisms | Lions fake fumble on wild TD
Stats of the Week
- Week 16 record straight up: 10-5
- Week 16 record against the spread: 8-7
- Season-to-date straight up: 162-78
- Season-to-date against the spread: 116-119
