It’s been a long, winding road to the final weeks of the regular season for the Buccaneers, but Baker Mayfield & Co. were positioned better than anyone in the NFC South entering Week 16.
A surprisingly strong start to the season for Tampa Bay was erased by a rough patch in the middle of the schedule, with the team hampered by injuries to both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But with Evans back in the fold, Tampa Bay’s offense had been red hot again lately.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 16
That was until the Buccaneers fell 26-24 to the Cowboys on Sunday night, snapping their four-game win streak and casting some doubt onto their postseason chances. With the Falcons recently making a quarterback change from veteran Kirk Cousins to rookie Michael Penix Jr. but still very much in the NFC South race, Tampa Bay has some close competition in its playoff chase.
Here’s a look at the Buccaneers’ updated playoff chances following their loss to Dallas and when they could punch their ticket.
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Buccaneers playoff picture
NFC South standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
| 1 | Falcons | 8-7 |
| 2 | Buccaneers | 8-7 |
| 3 | Saints | 5-9 |
| 4 | Panthers | 3-11 |
The Buccaneers entered Week 16 leading the Falcons by a game in the NFC South, but after the Falcons beat the Giants and the Buccaneers fell to the Cowboys on Sunday, Atlanta took over the No. 1 spot in the division. The two squads are now tied with an 8-7 record, with the Falcons holding the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a pair of wins over the Buccaneers in Week 5 and Week 8.
The division race is fairly straightforward, as the Buccaneers and Falcons don’t play again and the tiebreaker is decided. For Tampa Bay, it already allowed Atlanta to gain ground in the division, so it will now need to win out while the Falcons lose at least one game down the stretch. In other words, the Buccaneers no longer control their own destiny in the NFC South.
If both teams win out or lose out, the Falcons will win the NFC South. Tampa Bay will now need help to win its division after losing in Week 16.
NFC wild-card standings
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 5 | Vikings | 13-2 |
| 6 | Packers | 10-4 |
| 7 | Commanders | 10-5 |
| 8 | Buccaneers | 8-7 |
| 9 | Seahawks | 8-7 |
| 10 | Cowboys | 7-8 |
| 11 | Cardinals | 7-8 |
| 12 | 49ers | 6-9 |
| 13 | Saints | 5-9 |
| 14 | Bears | 4-11 |
| 15 | Panthers | 4-11 |
| 16 | Giants | 2-13 |
The Buccaneers could still conceivably earn a wild-card berth if they finished 10-7 and the Falcons did as well, giving Atlanta the NFC South title.
The Commanders would lose a game to the Falcons in that scenario in Week 17 and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Buccaneers. However, that would also require a Washington loss to Dallas in Week 18. It’s not unrealistic that Tampa Bay could land a wild-card spot as a consolation prize, but the easiest path to the playoffs for Tampa Bay is still through the division.
MORE NFL WEEK 16:
Buccaneers remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) |
| 17 | Dec. 29 | vs. Panthers | 1 p.m. |
| 18 | Jan. 5 | vs. Saints | TBD |
The Buccaneers face two sub-.500 teams to finish out the season, both also being NFC South rivals.
Buccaneers updated playoff chances
ESPN’s Football Power Index rated the Buccaneers’ playoff chances at 86%, with an 85% chance of winning the NFC South, entering Week 16. Their chances will take a significant hit following Sunday’s loss to Dallas, though.
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