Is it really the most wonderful time of the year? Maybe.
Although our NFL game picks and predictions against the spread have been more like lumps of coal than dancing sugar plums, the only thing to do is keep decking the halls every week.
Week 15 was a lot of bah humbug, so let’s hope for some holiday cheer with a needed Week 16 rebound with another fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications.
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NFL picks against the spread for Week 16
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Game of Midweek: Broncos at Chargers (-3, 42 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Chargers have gone cold at the wrong time with their offense and defense suddenly falling apart, leading to a lack of complementary football that had them rolling earlier in the season. Jim Harbaugh gets a correction here against a division foe that has won four straight games but has gotten sloppier of late, too. Los Angeles jumps Denver again in the 6-7 AFC wild-card pecking order.
Pick: Chargers win 22-17 and cover the spread.
MORE BRONCOS: Broncos playoff picture
MORE CHARGERS: Chargers playoff picture
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Game of the Week: Steelers at Ravens (-6.5, 45 o/u)
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The Steelers stymied the Ravens’ defensively in the first matchup, but now T.J. Watt (ankle) is hurting and Pittsburgh has less offensive firepower with George Pickens (hamstring) also on the shelf. Lamar Jackson got revved up again after the bye and will make amends for the earlier loss vs. Pittsburgh with sharp downfield passing. Russell Wilson once again will be hampered by one-dimensional limitations.
Pick: Ravens win 24-17 and cover the spread.
MORE RAVENS: Is Lamar Jackson ‘back’ in MVP race? | Ravens playoff picture
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Lock of the Week: Bills (-14, 46.5 o/u) over Patriots
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Josh Allen is on an unprecedented heater, taking over games by doing things that no one has seen from a quarterback in the modern era. He won’t be easing on the gas pedal with a lost New England defense coming to town. Allen has already fast-tracked toward his first NFL MVP, and now it’s time to avoid a trap.
Pick: Bills win 38-10 and cover the spread.
MORE: Josh Allen gets X-rays after ‘funky fall’ vs. Lions | James Cook scores despite attempted ‘hair tackle’
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Upset of the Week: 49ers at Dolphins (-1.5, 46 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Dolphins didn’t have much life in Houston, and the fight might be limited as Mike McDaniel tries to outcoach Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are grinding away with whoever’s left healthy around Brock Purdy and tend to play well on long road trips.
Pick: 49ers win 24-20
MORE 49ERS: 49ers rip ‘selfish’ De’Vondre Campbell | 49ers playoff picture
MORE DOLPHINS: Jaylen Waddle injury update | Dolphins playoff picture
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Buccaneers (-4, 49.5 o/u) over Cowboys
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Buccaneers are showing a complete offense again with Liam Coen, as the power running game and downfield passing game with Baker Mayfield are clicking together. It’s also putting the defense in better positions to tee off, which is good timing ahead of facing a compressed Dallas offense. Tampa Bay is too sharp to let up on the road, and the Cowboys have been bad at home.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-20.
MORE BUCCANEERS: Buccaneers playoff picture
MORE COWBOYS: Cowboys playoff picture
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Texans (-2, 40 o/u) at Chiefs
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Texans could be getting a break if Patrick Mahomes needs a little rest for his injured ankle. He’s “week to week,” but that doesn’t mean much when the Chiefs need to turn around and play on Wednesday in Week 17. They have the defense and can generate enough offense with Carson Wentz to handle the Texans in hostile Kansas City regardless.
Pick: Chiefs win 20-17.
MORE CHIEFS: Patrick Mahomes injury update
MORE TEXANS: Joe Mixon banged up on another uncalled hip-drop tackle
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Browns at Bengals (-7, 48 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bengals are doing most everything offensively through Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown, and Tee Higgins to help keep the playoff dream alive for a red-hot Joe Burrow. The Browns give up a ton of big plays to wide receivers and won’t get to use their strength vs. the run much. The Browns’ QB situation has no chance opposite Burrow.
Pick: Bengals win 34-17 and cover the spread.
MORE BENGALS: Joe Burrow explains tense exchange with Zac Taylor | Bengals playoff picture
MORE BROWNS: Nick Chubb injury update
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Rams (-3, 47 o/u) at Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This is a bit tricky for the Rams because the Jets’ offense has found plenty with Aaron Rodgers, even though it’s much too late. Los Angeles went from outscoring Buffalo to scoring just enough in San Francisco. The Jets’ secondary has been much leakier of late, and their run defense can be had. The younger Rams defenders respond better on the road, and Sean McVay also provides a big coaching edge.
Pick: Rams win 27-24 and cover the spread.
MORE RAMS: Rams playoff picture
MORE JETS: Rodgers, Adams work through ‘trust’ issues with throwback game vs. Jaguars
(Elsa/Getty)
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Eagles (-3.5, 45.5 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles should have plenty of success passing and running in the same game to clinch the NFC East title. Washington has limited passing pop around Jayden Daniels and can lose the battles up front on both sides. For a change, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley will go off at once to give Jalen Hurts his latest boost.
Pick: Eagles win 30-24 and cover the spread.
MORE EAGLES: A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts ‘tell everyone to shut up’ in win vs. Steelers
MORE COMMANDERS: Explaining Commanders-Saints clock errors | Commanders playoff picture
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Cardinals (-4, 47 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals will have no problems making red-hot James Conner a massive part of their game plan against an atrocious run defense. Kyler Murray also can get in on more of that fun. On the flip side, Bryce Young will have more moments in Year 2, but Jonathan Gannon’s defense will be steady to shut the door.
Pick: Cardinals win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Cardinals playoff picture
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Titans at Colts (-4.5, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts have teased with their offense at times, but Anthony Richardson has been all over the place while Jonathan Taylor is making uncharacteristic mistakes. The Titans’ defense has folded of late, and Taylor should rebound playing off some deep shots. Tennessee is still struggling to settle on an offensive identity, and Mason Rudolph starting again won’t help.
Pick: Colts win 24-17 and cover the spread.
MORE: Jonathan Taylor says costly mistake vs. Broncos ‘can’t happen’ | Colts playoff picture
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Lions (-7, 46.5 o/u) at Bears
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions’ defense is falling apart minus key players like Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Alex Anzalone, and Carlton Davis. The Bears pushed the Lions to the limit in Detroit, and Caleb Williams can continue that mojo in Chicago with the weather providing some extra support.
Pick: Lions win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Dan Skipper’s TD a year in the making | Lions injury list continues to grow
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Falcons (-10, 42.5 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This is a terrible matchup for the Giants, who have been destroyed by the run and play-action passing all season long. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will keep the Falcons rolling on the ground, setting up some high-flying big shots from Kirk Cousins. The Falcons’ defense can also stay hot teeing off on a shaky QB situation.
Pick: Falcons win 33-14 and cover the spread.
MORE FALCONS: Falcons playoff picture | Will Falcons bench Kirk Cousins?
MORE GIANTS: Tommy DeVito injury update | Giants fans fly banner over MetLife Stadium urging owner to ‘fire everyone’
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Vikings (-2.5, 42 o/u) at Seahawks
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings have won seven consecutive games after ripping the Bears at home on Monday night. They found a power running game at the right time again with Aaron Jones — just in time to keep the Seahawks reeling up front. Sam Darnold will better protect the ball, while likely fill-in counterpart Sam Howell will have flashbacks to the heavy pressure he saw while with the Commanders.
Pick: Vikings win 24-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Geno Smith injury update | Seahawks playoff picture
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Jaguars at Raiders (-1, 40 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jaguars’ defense has given up plenty to wide receivers and also can be smashed on the ground, but the Raiders aren’t built to exploit that with their ineffectiveness and injury uncertainty. Mac Jones has sparked the Jaguars’ offense late with rookie Brian Thomas Jr. becoming a better go-to guy with every week. This week, the running game also will provide more support.
Pick: Jaguars win 23-20.
WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
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Saints at Packers (-13.5, 42 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
The Packers have been terrific with Josh Jacobs and the running game, and Jordan Love is reaping the benefits at the right time. Look for the Packers’ defense to have a field day at Lambeau against whoever’s starting at QB for the Saints.
Pick: Packers win 34-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Explaining clock errors in Commanders-Saints game
Stats of the Week
- Week 15 record straight up: 9-5
- Week 15 record against the spread: 4-10
- Season-to-date straight up: 150-73
- Season-to-date against the spread: 106-112
