Maybe the Toronto Blue Jays want to make a big-name signing this winter, but so far, the fish aren’t biting.
The Blue Jays were one of the many losers in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, denying them a new superstar in their order. Corbin Burnes and Teoscar Hernández seem like logical backup targets, but neither feels like a strong bet to come to Toronto at this stage.
Next, the Blue Jays could pivot to a less exciting, but high-ceiling rotation addition. As an added bonus, that addition could come from a division rival also hoping to break through and make the playoffs in 2025.
Nick Pivetta, who spent the last five seasons with the Boston Red Sox, is often pointed out as a late-career breakout candidate despite his mediocre statistics. If his next team can harness his excellent raw stuff, Pivetta could be a dominant pitcher in his early 30s.
On Monday, Brian Murphy of MLB.com predicted that Pivetta would sign with the Blue Jays for the upcoming campaign.
“Pivetta, a native of Victoria, British Columbia, isn’t a flashy add, but his 30% strikeout rate and 22.8% K-BB rate since the start of 2023 each rank fifth-best in MLB,” Murphy said. “His ERA was once again above 4.00 last season, but his expected ERA was a stellar 3.51.”
“The homecoming angle would be a sweet story, but the 31-year-old Pivetta would also allow the Blue Jays to push (Yariel) Rodríguez into a swingman role and give them a bit of insurance with Bassitt slated to hit free agency after next season.”
Entering his age-32 season, Pivetta has long been a sabermetric darling. He generates a high swing-and-miss rate with multiple pitches and if he can ever stop giving up home runs, he’ll turn those strikeouts into scoreless innings for his new team.
Pivetta’s projected contract is three years, $48 million (via The Athletic), but given the state of the free agency market, it now seems a safe bet that the righty will command an even larger deal. Luis Severino signed for three years, $67 million with the Athletics, which might constitute a reasonable comparison.
The Blue Jays would also lose their second-round pick for signing Pivetta, due to the qualifying offer he rejected from Boston. It’s a risky signing, but one that would have the potential to pay off in a huge way.
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