Something’s rotten in Denmark– er, that is, something’s rotten in Madison Square Garden. After the preseason, the Rangers had an 81.6% chance of making the playoffs, which was sixth-best in the league, and had a 6.7% chance to win the Stanley Cup. Now, they sit at just a 16.7% chance to make the playoffs, and a 0.1% chance to win the Stanley Cup.
So, what happened? How did we get here?
After a ten game stretch in which they went 2-8, last night, the New York Rangers eked out a win… against a Buffalo Sabres team that has now lost eight in a row. But this win isn’t one fans should feel particularly good about. The Rangers didn’t play particularly well, but somehow, the Sabres played worse.
Remy Mastey of Yahoo! Sports writes that this win is a step in the right direction for the Rangers, but I’m inclined to disagree. Not all wins are victories, and I still think this team deserves to miss the playoffs. Here’s why:
Lack of commitment to team defense
The Rangers have allowed 83 goals against–12.13 goals above expected– and that blame hardly falls on the goaltenders. Igor Shesterkin has saved 7.7 goals above expected, and has a .911 SV% and a 2.9 GAA in 21 games played. Jonathan Quick has played eight games, has saved 1.7 goals above expected, and has a .915 SV% and a 2.58 GAA.
What does this mean? Well, it seems that no one told this Rangers team that Igor Shesterkin’s record-breaking contract extension doesn’t kick in until next season, because they’re certainly making Shesterkin earn his money’s worth. Simply put, this team isn’t defending well. You can point the finger at individual players– say, Ryan Lindgren, who has a 38.5% on-ice goalshare– but the problem lies with the team as a whole.
Drop-off in scoring
The Rangers are snakebitten. They’ve scored 7.27 less goals than expected. Just three players– Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Will Cuylle– have scored at least ten goals. Only Artemi Panarin is above a point-per-game, with 35 points in 28 games. The next highest scorer is Adam Fox with 25 points in 28 games. The Rangers average 3.18 goals per game, which is 13th in the league.
Regression to star players
Last night against the Buffalo Sabres, Mika Zibanejad broke a four-game goalless drought on the powerplay. At first glance, this isn’t a concern. But Zibanejad has only six goals in 28 games played, and just two in his last 11 games. He’s on pace for 18 goals, which would be the lowest he’s scored when playing a full season since 2013-14.
Chris Krieder has taken a step back as well. He’s played 25 games, and has ten goals… and just one assist. This puts him on pace for 29 goals and 32 points, which would be a far cry from last year’s 39 goals and 75 points.
Powerplay regression
This year, the Rangers have the 12th ranked powerplay in the league, which is firing at a 22.7% success rate. Last season, the powerplay was third-best in the league with a 26.4% success rate. This may not look like a significant dip on paper. But the Rangers have been failing to outscore their defensive woes, and, historically, much of the Rangers offense has come from its typically formidable powerplay.
Will the Rangers make the playoffs? I would say no– although, with the state of the East Coast Wildcard hunt, they may luck into a spot anyway. But make no mistake: if this Rangers team, as is, stumbles their way into the playoffs, they will exit, not with a bang, but with a whimper.
