Seeking to rescue their Champions League campaign, Real Madrid travel to Italy to face Atalanta desperately needing a result to remain afloat in the race for a knockout stage spot.
Los Blancos, the reigning European champions, currently reside in the final qualifying spot in the standings, sitting 24th with just six points through five matches. If they drop any further in the table they would be in an elimination position with very little time to pull themselves back up.
To boost their chances, Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo will both return to the squad after missing time due to injury in recent weeks, which left Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe on an island up front. Yet Madrid have recently shown signs of a return to form, blasting Girona on the road over the weekend to climb back into the La Liga title race.
Atalanta will present a much bigger challenge, as they sit fifth in the Champions League table and top of the Serie A standings. The Goddess struggled to begin the year but have not lost since late September, beating AC Milan over the weekend to move their winning streak to nine.
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Atalanta vs. Real Madrid prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Atalanta (+165 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Atalanta 2-1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid may have picked up a few big wins of late, but they still must prove they can put it together up front with Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappe, and Rodrygo all deployed together. Mbappe especially has struggled having to share the spotlight with his new teammates.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have been utterly spectacular in just about every phase of the game. Ademola Lookman continues to deliver in big spots, including his 87th minute winner against AC Milan over the weekend, giving Atalanta a deserved win at home against a quality opponent.
Unless Real Madrid find a magic solution ASAP, Atalanta are just the better team at this point.
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| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Atalanta win | +165 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Real Madrid win | +155 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -200 N: +140 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -165 U: +120 |
| Real Madrid -0.5 goals |
+140 |
| Atalanta +0.5 goals |
-200 |
Atalanta vs. Real Madrid match facts
- Date: Tuesday, December 10, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo, Italy)
- Referee: Szymon Marciniak (POL)
- Last meeting: Real Madrid 2-0 Atalanta (Aug. 14, 2024 | UEFA Super Cup)
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Atalanta vs. Real Madrid best bet
- Pick: Atalanta over 1.5 goals
- Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
The Atalanta attack has been a sleeping giant all year, and it’s started to wake up. They have scored two or more goals in all nine matches in their current winning streak, and they put up 2.38 xG on 22 shots the last time they were shut out, against Celtic in a 0-0 draw back in late October.
The last time these two teams matched up in the Super Cup to begin the year, they managed just seven shots and one big chance, but Real Madrid’s struggles had not yet set in by that point. Los Blancos are coughing up more chances than normal in the last few months, and they have not done well weathering opposition waves as they normally do.
If Madrid are to get a result here, they will likely have to outscore Atalanta, or get lucky with their opponent missing quality chances. Given Ademola Lookman’s form and propensity for capitalizing on opportunities, that’s unlikely.
Atalanta vs. Real Madrid prop bet
- Pick: Ademola Lookman anytime goal scorer
- Odds: +175 (BetMGM)
While Gian Piero Gasperini’s team has played as greater than the sum of its parts the last few months, the two players who have ignited the Atalanta attack are Ademola Lookman and Charles de Ketelaere.
Lookman has scored six goals in his last six Serie A games, including three combined against big opponents Napoli and AC Milan. Tack on two goals in his last three European games, and he’s certified heating up.
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Meanwhile, De Ketelaere has begun the hard work of rehabbing his slow start to life in Serie A with an excellent last two months, in the 99th percentile of Serie A attacking midfielders in both progressive passes and passes into the final third, and the 89th percentile in goal creating actions (0.67 per 90 minutes, which is exceptional). Those numbers are just as good in the Champions League, and he’s going to be critical to any upset triggered here.
