Cowboys playoff picture: Updated chances for Dallas to make 2025 NFL postseason after Week 14 loss to Lions

The Dallas Cowboys are never not in the spotlight, but after the Micah Parsons trade, they were under a microscope. 

The Cowboys have one of the best and most electric offenses in the entire NFL. With the addition of George Pickens in the offseason, Dak Prescott has been playing MVP-caliber football.

The issue was that the Cowboys’ defense was by far the worst in the league, which canceled out the offense’s efficiency. This prompted Jerry Jones to trade for so many much-needed additions on that side of the ball. Since acquiring defensive tackle Quinnen Williams from the Jets and linebacker Logan Wilson from the Bengals, the defense has shown real improvement.

The Cowboys won three consecutive games after their bye and were aiming for a fourth in a Thursday Night Football showdown against the Lions in Detroit, but fell 44-30.

Here is more on whether the Cowboys can make the 2025-26 postseason after falling to Detroit.

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Cowboys playoff picture

As it stands after Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys are two games back from the Philadelphia Eagles for the NFC East title, with a tie also on Dallas’ record. 

That is likely Dallas’s best way of clinching a playoff spot, especially after dropping to 6-6-1 and losing to the Lions. However, the Wild Card is still available for the Cowboys to sneak their way in, but they’d likely have to win out and get help.

After falling to another wild card contender in Detroit, Dallas is the third team on the bubble behind the Lions and Carolina Panthers. The Athletic’s playoff simulator now gives the Cowboys a 9% chance of making the playoffs, with a 5% chance of getting a wild-card spot and 4% chance to win the NFC East.

The loss to Detroit severely hurt Dallas’ playoff chances despite a recent win streak. Still, the Cowboys are not letting the loss get their spirits down, and aren’t going to focus on the fact the analytics say they have less than a 10% chance to make the postseason. Quarterback Dak Prescott said, ““The guys are pissed off right now. I don’t think this is any deflated moment like our hands are up, we’re done. No. Absolutely not. I think you’re gonna get a team that’s pissed. I hope it pisses people off the right way and we use it as fuel.”

Here is how the NFC playoff picture looks after Thursday Night Football between the Lions and Cowboys. The first four seeds are the division leaders. 

NFC East standings

At one point, it seemed a wild-card spot would be Dallas’ lone shot at the playoffs — but a recent win steak, and the Eagles’ struggles, slightly changed that. 

With the Eagles’ recent two-game skid paired with the Cowboys’ three-game winning streak, an NFC East title has still been play for Dallas. It helped that the Cowboys knocked off the Eagles in Week 13, splitting the season series and improving their division record to 3-1. 

However, the Cowboys’ Week 14 loss hurt those chances drastically, although Philadelphia has yet to clinch the division. The Eagles remain in the driver’s seat for the NFC East, and the Cowboys will still need a lot of help to make a comeback.

Cowboys remaining schedule

The Cowboys’ remaining four games are not just winnable, but favorable for Dallas. They’ll take on just one playoff team in the Los Angeles Chargers, and they get them at home.

Then the Cowboys’ other three opponents have a combined nine wins. This consists of the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15, followed by ending the season with two divisional games against the New York Giants and Washington Commanders.

Here is a look at Dallas’ remaining schedule.