Somehow, the World Series continues Wednesday after the 18-inning marathon game on Monday that ended in the late hours of the night (or early hours of the morning, depending on your view of it). The Los Angeles Dodgers took a 2-1 series lead thanks to a walk-off home run by Freddie Freeman, who is known to do such things.
Now, the Toronto Blue Jays have a short turnaround to even the series tonight with Shane Bieber on the mound, but it surely will not be easy with Shohei Ohtani pitching for the Dodgers. Last time we saw Ohtani on the mound, of course, he managed 10 strikeouts in six innings while also hitting three home runs in the same game.
For this article, we will detail our favorite World Series props. You’ll find MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and DraftKings for the home run picks below.
Hernandez Goes Back-to-Back
For today’s World Series props, we are going fully into the home run market, as there are a ton of good looks for Game 4 tonight and especially for Dodgers batters. Obviously, both bullpens are absolutely taxed after the game yesterday, but one key difference here is that the Dodgers have a starting pitcher they can trust to get through at least six innings, minimum, while the same cannot be said about Bieber for the Blue Jays.
Bieber was once among the best pitchers in baseball, but multiple injuries have limited him over the past couple years, and he really struggled with the long ball to end the regular season and into the playoffs. He made seven starts in the regular season, allowing a 1.79 HR/9 in those seven starts. For context, that would have been the second-highest HR/9 of all qualified pitchers in the regular season.
While he has been slightly better in the playoffs, he still has a HR/9 of 1.46, which would have been the fourth worst.
So, now that we have detailed the positive matchup for Dodgers batters, the logic on Hernandez specifically has to do with the incredibly impressive day he had at the plate yesterday. He did have the home run, but he had four separate HardHits, three of which were 100+ mph exit velocity, and two of which were put in the air. The home run was 109 off the bat and traveled 412 feet, but he also had a 383-foot flyout that was 101.4 mph EV. He’s hitting another one tonight.
Smith, After Coming Close, Clears Fence Tonight
Will Smith came a couple feet away from ending the game much earlier than the 18th inning last night, when he crushed a baseball 383-feet that went to the deep warning track in the 14th inning. He thought he had just ended the game and probably would have if it was just a little warmer, which would have helped with the carry of the baseball.
After missing much of the end of the regular season, Smith returned and has been fantastic in these playoffs so far, hitting .293 at the plate. The power has not quite been there, but that seemed to change last night in the 14th inning. We’ve already illustrated why the pitching matchup is solid for the Dodgers, but one thing not yet mentioned is that Bieber, despite being a righty himself, struggled significantly more against right-handed hitters.
His HR/9 against RHH specifically jumped all the way up to 2.95, allowing six of his eight home runs to be hit off righties such as Smith. He manages to hit one tonight.
Freeman Joins Hernandez, Homers Again
Freeman was the hero of last night’s game (taking out the Dodgers bullpen, of course), ending Game 3 with a walk-off home run. Like Hernandez, it was not just the home run that was impressive at the plate for Freeman. He also had three hits that left the bat at over 100+ mph exit velocity, and all three were put in the air in some degree.
The home run he hit was 107.4 off the bat and traveled 406-feet, but he also had a 379-foot flyout and a 358-foot lineout, both of which had the exit velocity and launch angle to be a home run threat. Freeman has been fantastic this entire postseason run, with six barrels and 19 HardHits in a total of only 10 games so far.
Despite Bieber struggling more against righties than the left-handed Freeman, he is still a good option to homer tonight at the +484 price on DraftKings.
