The Chiefs and Bills have been the two-most successful franchises in the NFL this decade.
Since 2020, Kansas City (83-24) and Buffalo (73-29) are the only two franchises in the NFL with a winning percentage better than 70%. It’s been the main event in the regular season and postseason, and the Week 9 matchup at Buffalo adds another chapter. This one gets the CBS spotlight at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Who needs this game more? The Bills broke a two-game losing streak in Week 8 with a 40-9 blowout against the Panthers, but New England has emerged as a real threat again in the AFC East. Kansas City has bounced back from a 2-3 start. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have built the league’s best quarterback rivalry, and this will add to that lore. Is it too presumptuous to assume we’ll see this matchup in the AFC playoffs for the fifth time in six years?
Why ask the question when you already know the answer?
Week 9 also features two other enticing AFC matchups. Indianapolis travels to Pittsburgh. Denver faces Houston. Those matchups will factor into the playoff picture later, too.
Straight up: 78-42-1 (in Week 8)
Against the spread: 62-57-2 (6-7 in Week 8)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 9. Odds according to Caesars.
POWER RANKINGS: Eagles, Chiefs near Packers rise to the top of Week 9
NFL picks, predictions for Week 9
- Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Lamar Jackson (hamstring) is expected to return – and the Ravens start a three-game road portion of the schedule that has no room for error. The Ravens lost their last TNF game at Miami – a 22-10 stunner in 2021 – but this feels more like a team ready to go on a run, especially after putting up 177 rushing yards last week.. Miami is 1-2 S/U at home and all three games have been decided by six points or less.
Pick: Ravens 31, Dolphins 21
MORE: How Patrick Mahomes’ 2025 season compares to previous MVP campaigns
- Chicago Bears (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
How do the Bengals bounce back after the collapse against the Jets? Cincinnati allows 256 passing yards per game. The Bears lead the NFL in interceptions with 11. The Bengals are fourth with eight. Can Cincinnati force a few turnovers from Caleb Williams? Cincinnati’s last four games have hit the over.
Pick: Bengals 28, Bears 27
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
This line has dropped a half point. The Lions are 2-2-1 S/U after a bye week under Dan Campbell. How will Minnesota slow down a Detroit offense that ranks third in the NFL with 30.7 points per game? The Lions have won the last three home meetings by 10 points or more and average 36.7 points at Ford Field.
Pick: Lions 36, Vikings 22
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers are a .500 hit-or-miss team, and they are 0-3 in games with multiple turnovers. Carolina also has allowed 200-plus yards rushing twice this season, so it’s an opportunity for Green Bay to feed Brandon Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson. The Packers are 0-3 ATS when favored by a TD or more, however, and double-digit lines are tricky.
Pick: Packers 28, Panthers 16
MORE: Tucker Kraft enjoys career day for Packers in ‘SNF’ win
- Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Unless you are the Titans. Tennessee has lost three consecutive games by double digits, and they have a -5 turnover ratio in those games. The Chargers are 2-1 S/U on the road, and Kimani Vidal should have another big game against a Titans’ run defense that allows 142.6 rushing yards per game.
Pick: Chargers 31, Titans 17
- Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Falcons have scored just 10 points in their last two losses, but Michael Penix Jr. (knee) could return against the Patriots. Drake Maye has 10 TDs and one interception through New England’s five-game win streak, and New England has covered in all of those games. Will Bijan Robinson have enough opportunities against a Patriots’ run defense that allows just 75 rushing yards per game?
Pick: Patriots 26, Falcons 21
- San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Giants’ season took a turn with the injury to Cam Skattebo (ankle), and the 49ers are coming off a 26-15 loss at Houston. Which team gets right here? Brock Purdy (toe) has yet to return for the 49ers. New York had just 68 rushing yards in the 38-20 loss to the Eagles.
Pick: 49ers 26, Giants 19
MORE: How Giants running back room looks after season-ending Cam Skattebo injury
- Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
How much trouble are the Steelers in? The Packers exposed a weak pass defense that has allowed a league-worst 273.3 yards per game. The Colts lead the AFC with a plus-8 turnover margin, and Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 850 rushing yards and 12 TDs. We are wary of a Pittsburgh upset here with Aaron Rodgers, but we just can’t trust that defense.
Pick: Colts 28, Steelers 22
Pick: Colts win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Where Aaron Rodgers vs. Steelers ranks among best QB revenge games
- Denver Broncos (-1) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
This is the toughest game to pick this week. Denver is on a five-game winning streak and has the look of a true Super Bowl contender. Houston is 2-1 S/U and has allowed 15 points per game in that situation. He took no sacks against San Francisco and finished with 318 passing yards. The Texans are 3-10 S/U when Stroud takes four sacks or more.
Pick: Broncos 32, Texans 29
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Jacksonville is coming off a bye week and looking to break a two-game losing streak. The Raiders are 1-2 S/U at home this season – and they will turn up the pressure on Trevor Lawrence, who took seven sacks in those two losses. Will the Raiders generate enough offense to make this one a four-quarter game?
Pick: Jaguars 21, Raiders 15
- New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-13.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Saints are a double-digit underdog for the second time this season, and they have lost their last three games by an average of 12.7 points per game. Los Angeles has a pass rush that has totaled 26 sacks, led by Byron Young with nine. It’s a huge spread, but the Rams have allowed less than 10 points in three games this season.
Pick: Rams 30, Saints 13
- Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
This is a tough stretch for the Chiefs, with road games at Buffalo and Denver, games that will become more important in the race for AFC playoff seeding. By now you know the trend, Allen is 4-1 S/U in head-to-head regular-season matchups against Mahomes. The Chiefs, however, have found a new gear and are equipped to win this game on the road. The Bills are 4-4 S/U as a home underdog since 2019, so this really is a toss-up.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Bills 24
- Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Will Jayden Daniels – who has dealt with knee and hamstring injuries – return for this game? Seattle is 3-0 S/U on the road and coming off a bye week. This feels like an or-else moment for the Commanders, but the pressure needs to land on Sam Darnold, who has taken just nine sacks this season.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Commanders 21
MORE: Will Jayden Daniels be ready for Week 9 vs. Seahawks?
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN
The Cowboys are the classic home-and-road team at this point. Dallas is 1-4 on the road, but they are 2-0-1 at AT&T Stadium and have scored 40 or more points in all three of those games. Arizona is coming off a bye week and should get a boost from the return of Kyler Murray – a Texas native who is 2-0 as a starter at Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Cardinals 24
