Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza transferred to Bloomington from Cal with his sights set further than the Big Ten. A strong sophomore season put him on the NFL Draft radar, and a year with the Hoosiers can help him achieve those goals.
First, though, he’ll need to survive a brutal Big Ten schedule and help Indiana compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff. So far, so good.
Indiana is 3-0 heading into conference play, and while several top passing prospects are floundering, Mendoza is finding success. He’s continued to flash NFL-level traits weekly, and a seamless transition from the ACC has kept him on the Day 1 track.
Mendoza’s strengths jump off the screen
It doesn’t take a quarterbacking guru to identify Mendoza’s biggest strength. He makes throws that get butts out of seats, and he does it more often than most of his counterparts.
Mendoza is the class’s foremost field stretcher. Whether it’s testing one-on-one throws to the boundary, splitting safeties, or aggressively challenging the seam, Mendoza has the arm talent and the requisite arrogance to pull it off.
That elicits upside and makes him dangerous from the jump, but he’s more than just a physical talent. Mendoza is one of the better post-snap processors in the class, too. He does a good job of identifying man coverage and using it to his advantage. Likewise, he quickly progresses through his reads to get to the checkdown when necessary.
#Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (6-5, 225, rJR) faces his first major test of the season against a top 10 ranked team in Illinois. He made some impressive tight window throws last week. pic.twitter.com/343RwuQn9w
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) September 18, 2025
Mendoza is also an average athlete for the position. He can make plays as a scrambler and pulls himself out of trouble with his legs. On the move, Mendoza retains his accuracy and velocity, flaunting the ability to hurt defenses when the play breaks down.
Of course, he won’t be able to survive on his ability to solely stretch the field, but he checks enough boxes within structure and with his intangibles to trust with a starting job.
What must Mendoza prove in 2025?
As with many big-armed passers, the easy stuff can sometimes prove to be elusive. Mendoza is a more natural passer over the top than underneath, opening the door for some minor consistency issues. He’s not routinely missing layups, but he isn’t automatic, either.
Where Mendoza might see the most trouble early in his NFL career is within the pocket while under duress. He’s plenty capable of reacting to stimuli and finding escape hatches. Sometimes, though, his out-of-structure answers are suboptimal. I don’t fully trust his pocket movements, and when the margins get slimmer, he could get himself into trouble too much.
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Similarly, Mendoza can get reckless out of structure, blending the arm arrogance that makes him an early-round prospect and the decision-making woes that have caused some consternation. In desperation mode, this can rear its head, such as when he threw a game-ending interception on fourth down by losing an underneath defender.
These aren’t profile-sinking red flags, but it’s easy to see each of them causing more trouble at the next level, making his junior-year development that much more important.
Mendoza’s NFL projection
Mendoza is a big-game hunter with a live arm and strong processing. There’s ample reason to believe in his potential as a franchise quarterback, and his draft capital should reflect that.
After entering the year as a late-first-round pick, Mendoza’s September has raised his stock and put him firmly in the conversation for the first passer taken in April. Of course, a Big Ten gauntlet awaits, starting with Illinois in Week 4. Oregon and Penn State will set the stage for statement games, too, with other top quarterbacks offering Mendoza a measuring stick.
There’s a world in which Mendoza becomes a Dak Prescott-like passer who threatens defenses downfield while staying one step ahead with his processing. Ironing out the under-pressure kinks of a lesser passer will be important in fostering that development and further entrenching himself as a top-15 pick.
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