Tonight sees a massive NL East showdown, and baseball fans can get the best Mets vs. Phillies odds, picks and betting preview for wagering on all the action as the race for the postseason picks up.
- The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets in the third game of their divisional series, with Cristopher Sánchez on the mound looking to continue his stellar season.
- Philadelphia enters as a significant home favorite, backed by a dominant 8-2 record in their last 10 games and recent series success against the struggling Mets.
- This preview analyzes the odds, starting pitcher matchups, key player props, and provides a data-driven prediction for the NL East clash.
The Phillies, behind their emergent ace Cristopher Sánchez who boasts a sparkling 2.60 ERA, look to secure a series victory against the visiting New York Mets and their starter, Clay Holmes. Sánchez has been a revelation for the Phillies, compiling a 12-5 record while consistently shutting down opposing lineups. He faces a Mets team that has dropped four straight and is struggling to generate offense.
For the Mets, Holmes (11-7, 3.61 ERA) takes the ball, tasked with playing the role of stopper against a Phillies offense that went off Tuesday night. While Holmes has been a reliable arm for New York, he faces a potent lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. With the Phillies clicking on all cylinders and the Mets searching for answers, this divisional matchup presents a clear contrast in team momentum. This article will break down the betting odds, analyze key matchups, and offer our best picks for the game.
The Phillies (85-60) host the Mets (76-69) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia with first pitch scheduled for 6:45 PM EDT.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Odds
| Bet Type | New York Mets Odds | Philadelphia Phillies Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-149) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total Runs | Over 8.0 (-102) | Under 8.0 (-118) |
Odds as of September 10, 2025 from MGM.
The odds reflect Philadelphia’s strong recent run and home-field advantage, making them considerable -175 favorites on the moneyline. The vig-free implied probabilities give the Phillies a 60.9% chance of winning, compared to 39.1% for the Mets. The run line is set at a standard 1.5, with the Phillies offered at plus-money to win by two or more runs, suggesting value for those who believe in a decisive victory. The total of 8 runs leans slightly to the under, a nod to Sánchez’s Cy Young-caliber season.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has shown steady confidence in the Philadelphia Phillies since lines opened. The Phillies’ moneyline has shifted from -167 to -175, an 8-cent move indicating that early money is backing the home team. This movement is likely driven by the stark contrast in recent performance, with the Phillies winning eight of their last ten while the Mets are mired in a four-game losing streak.
The run line has also seen movement in Philadelphia’s favor, with the price on the Phillies -1.5 runs shortening from +135 to +125. This suggests that bettors are not only picking the Phillies to win but are increasingly willing to bet on them winning by a comfortable margin. The total has remained stable at 8 runs, but the juice has shifted, with the under moving from -115 to -118. This subtle change points to respect for Sánchez’s dominant season and the Mets’ recent offensive struggles. The absence of key bats like Trea Turner and Alec Bohm for the Phillies may also be contributing to the market’s slight lean towards a lower-scoring affair.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Injury Reports for September 10, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | IF | Shoulder | D10 | Key bat missing from the lineup; impacts run production. |
| Trea Turner | IF | Hamstring | D10 | Loss of a premier leadoff hitter and defensive stalwart. |
| Jordan Romano | P | Finger | D15 | Weakens the back end of the bullpen. |
| Zack Wheeler | P | Blood Clot | D60 | Ace pitcher’s absence puts more pressure on the rotation. |
| Daniel Robert | P | Forearm | D60 | Reduces bullpen depth for middle relief innings. |
New York Mets
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Taylor | OF | Hamstring | D10 | Reduces outfield depth and bench speed. |
| Luis Torrens | C | Forearm | D10 | Limits catching options and lineup flexibility. |
| Frankie Montas Jr. | P | Elbow | D60 | Major blow to the starting rotation depth. |
| Tylor Megill | P | Elbow | D60 | Another significant loss for a thin starting staff. |
| Griffin Canning | P | Achilles | D60 | Season-ending injury that further depletes pitching. |
| Jesse Winker | OF | Back | D60 | Veteran bat missing from the outfield rotation. |
| A.J. Minter | P | Lat | D60 | Key left-handed reliever out, straining the bullpen. |
How the Mets have fared against Cristopher Sanchez
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .208 | .208 | .375 | .583 | |
| Brandon Nimmo | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .316 | .381 | .316 | .697 | |
| Francisco Lindor | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .353 | .450 | .353 | .803 | |
| Mark Vientos | 13 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | .385 | .500 | .923 | 1.423 | |
| Jeff McNeil | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .167 | .167 | .250 | .417 | |
| Starling Marte | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | .267 | .389 | .533 | .922 | |
Sánchez has had his way with several key Mets hitters, but others have found success. Mark Vientos and Starling Marte have been particularly troublesome. Vientos, specifically, has five career extra-base hits against the southpaw. However, Sánchez has effectively neutralized Jeff McNeil (.417 OPS) and has managed Pete Alonso’s power. Francisco Alvarez has yet to record a hit in six at-bats against him.
Philadelphia Phillies Career Statistics vs. Clay Holmes
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .667 | .667 | .667 | 1.334 | |
| Bryce Harper | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| Kyle Schwarber | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .286 | .444 | .714 | 1.158 | |
| Max Kepler | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
There’s not a lot to go by in terms of Holmes vs. Phillies hitters. Schwarber has taken him deep once, but the sample sizes for most hitters are somewhat meaingless. Holmes is a groundball specialist, relying heavily on a high-velocity sinker and a sharp slider. This approach could be tested by the Phillies’ left-handed power bats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who excel at elevating the ball. The key for Holmes will be to keep the ball on the ground and avoid the middle of the plate, as Citizens Bank Park is unforgiving to pitchers who make mistakes.
Phillies vs Mets September 10, 2025 Batter Props
| PLAYER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOME RUNS | RBIs | RUNS SCORED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 (O -250 | U +195) | 1.5 (O +105 | U -149) | +434 | 0.5 (O +165 | U -222) | 0.5 (O -125 | U -110) |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 (O -175 | U +135) | 1.5 (O +130 | U -182) | +336 | 0.5 (O +165 | U -222) | 0.5 (O -110 | U -125) |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 (O -224 | U +166) | 1.5 (O +136 | U -181) | +657 | 0.5 (O +178 | U -247) | 0.5 (O +127 | U -172) |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 (O -192 | U +142) | 1.5 (O +140 | U -188) | +412 | 0.5 (O +184 | U -257) | 0.5 (O +138 | U -189) |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 (O -238 | U +175) | 1.5 (O +125 | U -175) | +535 | 0.5 (O +250 | U -357) | 0.5 (O +125 | U -167) |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 (O -178 | U +134) | 0.5 (O -169 | U +130) | +478 | 0.5 (O +223 | U -315) | 0.5 (O +119 | U -156) |
MLB batter props as of September 10, 2025 from MGM.
Phillies vs Mets September 10, 2025 Pitcher Props
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS ALLOWED | HITS ALLOWED | INNINGS PITCHED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) | 5.5 (O -167 | U +125) | 1.5 (O -149 | U +105) | N/A | 5.5 (O +110 | U -161) | 6.2 (O +130 | U -182) |
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.5 (O +120 | U -154) | 2.5 (O +105 | U -149) | N/A | 4.5 (O -154 | U +110) | 5.2 (O +135 | U -200) |
MLB pitcher props as of September 10, 2025 from MGM.
For the pitcher props, Sánchez’s strikeout line of 5.5 feels attainable given his season performance and the Mets’ tendency to strike out. The Under on his 1.5 Earned Runs at +105 offers intriguing value, considering his 2.60 ERA and the Mets’ recent offensive woes. Clay Holmes’ strikeout total is set at a low 4.5, reflecting his groundball-heavy approach. The over at +120 could be a worthwhile play if the Phillies’ aggressive hitters expand the zone, but the under is probably the safer bet given his style.
Phillies vs Mets Picks & Prediction
The Phillies are in a prime position to continue their dominance over the New York Mets. The pitching matchup heavily favors the home team, with Cristopher Sánchez (12-5, 2.60 ERA) performing at an elite level all season. He’s backed by a Phillies team that has been a juggernaut at home, posting an stellar 7-1 record in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park and winning their last six home games against teams with a winning record.
Conversely, the Mets are in a freefall. They have lost four straight and have been abysmal on the road, particularly as underdogs where they are just 1-11 in their last 12 contests. Really, they have been one of the worst teams in baseball for the better part of three months now.
Several betting trends reinforce a pro-Phillies stance. The Phillies are 6-1 as home favorites in their last seven games and 4-1 against opponents with winning records in their last five. The Mets are 5-14 as an underdog over their last 19 games. Given the pitching advantage, recent form, and powerful home-field trends, backing them on the moneyline is the most logical play.
For better value, the run line at +125 is highly attractive, as Philadelphia has demonstrated the ability to win decisively at home.
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Picks:
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-175)
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Under 8.0 Runs (-118)
Public Betting Splits
| Bet Type | Home Team (Philadelphia Phillies) | Away Team (New York Mets) | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 74.17% of bets (65.35% of money) | 25.83% of bets (34.65% of money) | N/A |
| Run Line | 81.49% of bets (83.01% of money) | 18.51% of bets (16.99% of money) | N/A |
| Total Runs | N/A | N/A | 70.31% of bets (Over) |
Public money is heavily backing the Phillies on both the moneyline and the run line, with over 81% of run line tickets on the home team. Interestingly, there is a “divergent” sentiment on the moneyline, where the percentage of money on the Mets is significantly higher than the percentage of bets, suggesting some sharp or large wagers are on the underdog. The public is also strongly leaning towards the Over, with over 70% of bets expecting a high-scoring game, which contrasts with the slight juice movement towards the Under.
