The New York Yankees have one of the most storied histories across any professional sports league. A huge part of that storied history is the incredible players who’ve come through the organization, and currently, Aaron Judge fits the bill of a Yankees legend.
This season, Judge is putting together another remarkable year and is once again a top MVP candidate. However, unlike prior years, he has some tough competition in Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh.
Judge is still the favorite to win the award, but for Bradford Doolittle of ESPN.com, Judge is predicted to lose out on the AL MVP to Raleigh despite the struggles for the Mariners catcher in recent weeks.
Aaron Judge Predicted to Lose AL MVP to Cal Raleigh
Doolittle predicts that, “Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.”
Raleigh is close to Mickey Mantle’s switch-hitting home run record, and Doolittle predicts that Raleigh, in the final few weeks of the season, will surpass Mantle’s 54 home runs he hit in 1961 for the most by a switch-hitter in MLB history.
It would be one thing for Raleigh to reach 60 home runs (or more), but to not reach that benchmark, the case for Raleigh over Judge isn’t as strong. Raleigh has hit just .208 since the All-Star break, and his season-long batting average is .240.
On the year, Raleigh has 53 home runs, 128 hits, and an AL-leading 113 RBIs. The Mariners slugger has a .923 OPS in 142 games played in 2025, and the Mariners are close to surpassing the Houston Astros for first in the AL West.
Judge, meanwhile, has a .321 batting average with 44 home runs, 155 hits, 98 RBIs, and an MLB-best 1.103 OPS. He also leads the AL in walks (104) and runs (115). Judge’s 7.6 WAR is also the highest in baseball, well ahead of Raleigh’s 5.7.
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Raleigh has the advantage in home runs and RBIs, along with having the position boost as a catcher. Seeing a catcher reach the number he’s managed in 2025 is an incredible feat and is well-deserving of his flowers.
However, Judge’s overall offensive production, combined with strong defense in right field, makes for a strong case to win the MVP. His statistics are, for the most part, better than Raleigh’s.
Both have strong cases to be the AL MVP, but Judge’s is stronger than Raleigh’s statistically. However, Doolittle predicts that Raleigh will win the AL MVP over Judge.
If Raleigh were to win MVP, he’d need to have a strong finish to 2025. If he falls short of 60 home runs, Judge’s chances of winning the MVP will be significantly better than if Raleigh hits 60.
To predict that Raleigh would fall short of 60 home runs and still win MVP would be an interesting outcome. It’d be frustrating for Yankees fans, as Judge would have had a better statistical season, while Raleigh came up short of a major milestone.
There’s still plenty of time for the narratives surrounding the MVP award to change, but barring any drastic changes, Judge should be the favorite. However, Doolittle predicts that Judge will come up just short, as Raleigh does enough to win the AL MVP.
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