Fair or not, Texas quarterback Arch Manning will define the 2026 NFL Draft. His decision to stay in school or take the leap will dominate the discourse until it becomes official. On the way, he’ll have to battle the skepticism that comes with a two-start sample size and the regression that might be waiting for him against SEC competition.
Yet, as the prodigal son of the Manning passing family, he remains a Heisman favorite and a real contender to go first overall in April.
This far out from the NFL Draft, there is still much to be decided. The error bars on Manning’s development are massive. He might be humbled by Ohio State in Week 1 or Georgia in November. Perhaps he’ll slip up against lesser competition along the way. But writing Manning off because of his inexperience or disregarding the flashes he showed in his limited action is a disservice to the traits that are already on display, regardless of who it came against.
Arch Manning’s strengths stand out
Manning hasn’t played meaningful snaps against high-level competition, making much of his scouting report an act of projection. The foundation of that forecast is traits that show up against every opponent.
Manning is listed at 6’3″ and 216 pounds, an above-average frame that checks the box without screaming “physical freak.” His athleticism, including potential sub-4.60-second speed, separates him from the Mannings of years past. He’s a real big-play threat as a scrambler, can force missed tackles with short-area quickness and agility, and has more than enough juice to take on the occasional read option.
Elsewhere, Manning’s arm strength checks the box. He can stretch the field effortlessly, with adequate velocity and exceptional touch downfield. That isn’t going away in the College Football Playoff.
Quick hitters on #Texas QB Arch Manning before the #Buckeyes matchup:
– Manning’s release is QUICK. He can get the ball out with ease, making him perfect for Sark’s offense
– There’s no throw Manning isn’t willing to make
– Has good pocket presence and stays calm under pressure… pic.twitter.com/33p1rUzbbr— Dylan Feltovich (@dyfelt) August 27, 2025
Manning has the tools to be a top-five pick, but he is more than an inexperienced passer reliant on his physical traits. Against SEC competition, it’s possible that Manning’s decision-making, processing, ability to deal with pressure, and out-of-structure prowess all falter. The margins will get smaller, the adversity will increase, and he’ll finally be tested. Still, he flashed each of those intangibles in his limited action.
As a redshirt freshman, his feel for timing was impressive. He remained poised when the pocket (occasionally) collapsed, keeping his eyes downfield and letting passes rip before getting drilled. Manning processed information on the move, getting defenders out of position with his legs before finding receivers with room to run. He dutifully got to his checkdowns and flourished within structure. Ultimately, he showcased more nuance than expected — almost like he’s been raised to play quarterback.
Manning still has a lot to prove
The crux of Manning’s hype comes from believing that the flashes he showcased against lesser competition will translate to the highest levels of college football. No matter how much hype he generates before the season, he must look the part this season to capitalize on that momentum.
It’s easy to make plays under pressure when oncoming defenders are few and far between. An NFL-caliber offensive line will frequently keep him clean, but Manning will be under more duress in 2025. In the biggest games of the season, he’ll be forced to put his big-boy pants on and deliver in adversarial circumstances. That isn’t a given, and it widens the potential outcomes for his season.
MORE: NFL Mock Draft 2026: Arch Manning among four QBs projected in top 10 entering college football season
Further, Manning did show some signs of inexperience last season. Out of structure, he can try to do too much and force throws, trusting his arm a little too much with a defender impacting his throw. Muddied looks on RPOs can get the best of him, and the trajectories on some of his passes suggest he isn’t always comfortable balancing touch and velocity. Manning can be a little too aggressive, and as opposing corners become more athletic, he’ll likely get away with fewer mistakes.
With that said, none of Manning’s flaws seem fatal, and many of them can reasonably dissipate with experience.
How early could Manning go in April?
Entering his redshirt sophomore season, Manning has all the makings of a potential first-overall pick. He has more upside than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, a higher floor than South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, and his age gives him more of a runway to development than many other passers in this class.
Simply put, if Manning declares, he’s going to go very early. That comes down to both his skill set and unique circumstances.
The NFL is re-opening its arms to older passers who have tons of college reps, allowing them to find success early on. There’s precedent for Mannings staying in school (and gamifying the NFL Draft to their benefit), so his potential landing spot could change the calculus. At Texas, he’ll compete for national championships and Heisman trophies for as long as he stays in school, and the NIL era adds incentive for him to do so.
Manning will enter the season as my QB1. He’s expected to go early in Round 1, and until the SEC humbles him, there’s little reason for that forecast to change. The small sample size inherently clouds his projection, but if Manning continues to look the part as his competition improves, his stock will be off to the races.
The hype isn’t fair, but it is warranted. Expect Manning to make good on the excitement in 2025.
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