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Raiders projected to replace Geno Smith with 4,700-yard, 30-TD Big 10 passer

The Raiders made the necessary roster moves to get to 53 players this week, so we now know who will be on the team in 2025. 

One thing that has been decided for a while is who the starting quarterback will be- veteran Geno Smith. Smith was acquired in a trade this offseason and reunites with his former head coach Pete Carroll. 

For the first part of his career, Smith was looked at as a draft bust. However, the passer was rejuvenated upon being traded to Seattle and has turned into a solid quarterback. During his five seasons in Seattle, Smith made two Pro Bowls and eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark twice. 

Now, the hope is that Smith and Carroll can recapture some of that magic in Las Vegas. However, if that doesn’t happen, and the Raiders again struggle, could the team move on next offseason?

Nick Baumgardner of The Athletic recently published an updated 2026 mock draft, and Baumgardner has the Raiders taking Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 8 pick. 

Regarding Mendoza and the Raiders, Baumgardner offered the following: 

As with every QB listed here, this is contingent on how Mendoza performs in 2025. Expectations are high, though, and for good reason. The 6-5, 225-pounder has a huge arm and has shown an ability to quickly process coverage while maintaining an ability to run. This season, he gets to work with Hoosiers offensive wizard Curt Cignetti.

As Baumgardner mentioned, it’s early to predict who the top quarterbacks will be, but there’s a good chance Mendoza is high on that list. 

Mendoza has prototypical size for an NFL passer, standing at 6-5 and weighing in at 225 pounds. The quarterback also has better mobility than you’d expect at his size and has impressive arm strength. 

Mendoza spent the first two seasons of his college at Cal. The passer burst onto the scene in 2024 after he threw for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. Mendoza also completed 68.7% of his passes and rushed for two scores. 

This offseason, Mendoza transferred to Indiana where he has a chance to put up even better numbers. The Hoosiers were one of the surprises of college football last season as they made the College Football Playoff under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. 

If Mendoza impresses again, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him be one of the first passers selected in 2026. And, if the Raiders are in position to pick one of the top passers, you can assume that the Geno Smith experiment did not go well in 2025. 

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