It’s Dinger Tuesday, meaning you can make home run picks using a profit boost on FanDuel. There are 15 games to consider for our HR prop bets on August 26th. We look at pitching matchups, recent stats, weather and ballparks.
Try using multiple MLB betting bonuses on Tuesday. For example, there is a 50% profit boost for home run bets on FanDuel.
Stanton Homers at Yankee Stadium
Stanton has been hitting the ball well recently, with five barrels over the last seven days. He is one of only 11 batters with five or more barrels in this stretch, and that includes Stanton getting the day off yesterday for rest purposes. The run started back a couple weeks ago, as Stanton has a total of 10 barrels in the 10 games he has played since August 11th, which is an impressive number.
While Yankee Stadium is generally a better venue for home runs by left-handed hitters due to the short right field porch, it is still a positive venue overall today for home runs. There is a +22% home run index at Yankee Stadium today, which is the second-best of the slate.
Stanton also gets a great pitching matchup against the Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has allowed a home run every 12 at-bats to right-handed hitters over the last six weeks. Not only that, but all the advanced metrics for Gore against RHH are poor, with a 13.50%-barrel rate, 57% HardHit rate and 62% combined line-drive + fly-ball rate.
Springer Sends One Deep in Toronto
George Springer missed some time due to injury in the first half of August, but he has been raking since he came back. Taking out his first game back on 8/16, he has played eight games since 8/17. In those eight games he has hit five barrels (16.7%-barrel rate) with 14 HardHits, hitting a total of four home runs in this stretch.
This is another situation where the batter should have the advantage over the starting pitcher, this time rocking with Springer against Bailey Ober. We’ve mentioned this before, but Ober is lovingly nicknamed Bailey “Over” since he is the type of pitcher that allows a lot of home runs.
He has allowed a home run every 18 at-bats on the season. While he is slightly worse against lefties as opposed to a righty such as Springer, he still does not have great numbers against RHH either. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 24 ABs to righties, with a 9%-barrel rate, 51% HardHit rate and 57% combined line-drive + fly-ball rate.
Vientos Goes Yard for Mets
Of the three batters mentioned for today’s home run picks, Vientos is, by far, the hottest at the plate. He is one of five batters with five or more barrels over the last seven days, while also having the second-most HardHits in the MLB in the same stretch with 16. The one batter above him is his teammate Pete Alonso, who has 17.
So, after a slow start to the year for Vientos he has been on a roll over the last 10 days or so. He has also absolutely crushed left-handed pitching recently, with a .467 ISO rate and 18%-barrel rate against LHP over the last 30 days.
That is important with the Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo on the mound, who is, you guessed it, a left-handed hitter. Luzardo can be highly volatile on the mound, but, taking a step back, he has allowed a home run every 16 at-bats to righties over the last six weeks. He has allowed seven home runs since the All-Star break, and all seven have been hit by right-handed hitters. Vientos stays hot tonight.
