Division races are tightening, and Wild Card spots are being claimed, but as we approach the final month of the 2025 MLB season, all attention is on this year’s NL homerun race between Philadelphia Phillies’ designated hitter Kyle Schwarber and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ two-way star Shohei Ohtani.
Both sluggers are on pace to hit 55 home runs, but who will actually reach that number and who will come out on top for this year’s home run race?
Well, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and Buster Olney, they both believe that Schwarber will come away with this year’s home run title, as they cite key similarities with their predictions.
“He’s slugging .577 against left-handed pitching, which will translate into a couple more homers off lefties in September and be the difference in the home run race,” Rogers said.
“Schwarber will win the title, but he’ll reach 59. He has figured out how to hit left-handers — stand in the box, take the HBPs and square up everything — and has absurdly even splits, with a .946 OPS against right-handers and .943 against lefties,” Olney stated.
The one recurring stat that stands out is the production of Schwarber against left-handed hitters and how his overall numbers look once the calendar flips to September, producing a career slugging percentage of .521. With absurd numbers like this, it’s safe to assume that Schwarber is the clear-cut winner to secure the NL home run crown by season’s end, but when Ohtani is in the mix, it’s hard to predict the type of tear he can produce.
When you look at the two sluggers, both are tied for the NL home run lead with a staggering 54 long balls. Schwarber has played just two more games than Ohtani (Schwarber 130, Ohtani 128), but in terms of slashline, it’s Ohtani who is having the more overall productive season.
Ohtani has a slashline of .280/.389/.619, while Schwarber is producing a slash of .248/.371/.573. Even in terms of the OPS department, Ohtani has the slight edge, having an OPS of 1.008, and Schwarber with .944.
There is no denying that this year’s NL home run race will go down to the wire with less than 30 games left to play, and it looks to be anyone’s home run crown to win.
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