Today does not feature the best MLB betting slate in the world, with dreary weather in a lot of places and only nine MLB games as opposed to a full, 15-game slate. That said, one game with excellent home run conditions is the Cardinals vs. Rays game at Steinbrenner Field.
We will get into all that, so please read below for our favorite MLB home run predictions today. There are MLB betting bonuses on bet365 and FanDuel to make these HR picks.
| Home Run Picks | Best Odds |
| Lars Nootbaar | +450 at bet365 |
| Alec Burleson | +525 at bet365 |
| Mark Vientos | +750 at FanDuel |
Nootbaar Goes Yard for Cardinals
As promised, let’s talk about the weather in this game, which is the best home run venue of the slate, by far. There are double-digit winds blowing out to center field, along with temperatures in the mid to high 80s, low barometric pressure, and relatively high humidity. All of those factors help immensely with any baseball put in the air, and Steinbrenner Field is also a friendly home run environment without adding in the impact of weather. All in all, this game has a +48% home run index, which is one of the highest you’ll see all season.
Another positive for the Cardinals bats is the pitching matchup against Joe Boyle of the Rays, who has decent stuff but has been getting tattoo’d in the home run department recently. He has allowed a home run every 14 at-bats over the last six weeks, while allowing a high barrel rate (10.50%), HardHit rate (44%), and fly-ball rate (38.50%), all with a low strikeout rate below 20%.
So, this is a situation where we are expecting success from the Cardinals bats tonight, one of which being Lars Nootbaar. For starters, Nootbaar is a left-handed hitter, so he will benefit from the short right field porch at Steinbrenner Field. He has been hitting the ball relatively well recently, with two HardHits and a barrel in each of the last two games.
Both of his HardHits yesterday left the bat at 100+ mph exit velocity, with one being a double that traveled 367 feet. He goes yard tonight.
Burleson Joins Nootbaar, Homers Tonight
With weather conditions as good as they are at Steinbrenner Field and the pitching matchup as good as it is, it only makes sense to double up and roll with two batters on the Cardinals. Burleson leads the team in total HardHits over the last seven days with 12, one of 10 batters in the MLB with 12 or more HardHits over this span.
He has been on a roll over the last four games, specifically, with a combined 10 HardHits in those four games. Similar to Nootbaar, he is coming off a game yesterday in which he had two HardHits and one barrel, giving him a decent day overall.
While Burleson has a lower pull-rate than what you would like over this seven-day stretch, he has done a good job putting the ball in the air with a fly-ball rate of 46%. Benefitting from the same park factors and pitching matchup as Nootbaar, Burleson is another great look for a home run tonight.
Vientos Sends One Deep at Nationals Park
Vientos started off the season ice cold and missed some time due to injury, but it finally looks as though he is returning to the form from last year when he was a breakout player for the Mets. He has a combined four barrels and nine HardHits over his last three games, two very impressive numbers.
While he did not go yard yesterday, he did hit a home run in back-to-back games the two games prior, and he is coming off a four HardHit game yesterday. Two of those were hit above 100 mph exit velocity, with one traveling 377 feet. So, the hot stretch absolutely continued yesterday, and he has a fantastic matchup tonight against Nats starter MacKenzie Gore.
Over the last six weeks, Gore has allowed a home run every 14 at-bats to right-handed hitters, allowing a 12% barrel rate, 54% HardHit rate, and 64% combined line-drive + fly-ball rate. He has allowed a total of six home runs in this stretch, five of which have been hit off his 4-seam fastball. Vientos, meanwhile, has fantastic numbers against the 4-seamer from LHP, with a .269 ISO rate, 60% HardHit rate, and only strikes out 7% of the time. He sends one to the bleachers tonight.
