We have a full MLB slate on Friday for our home run picks. With the double-header between the Guardians and White Sox, there are 16 MLB games today, with the first game starting at 3:10 p.m. ET.
There should be plenty of home runs with great hitting conditions across the board. Below, we discuss our favorite MLB home run bets for today, July 11th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Friday
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Springer Crushes Home Run at Sutter Park
This is the case a lot, but the conditions at Sutter Health Park, the Athletics home stadium, are fantastic for home runs tonight. The temperature is going to be in the 100s when the game starts, and there are 11-14 mph winds blowing out to left-center field. This stadium is very receptive to wind impacting the carry of the baseball, so, the wind combined with the hot temperatures should mean baseballs are flying.
Along with the great weather conditions, the Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino has struggled immensely. He has allowed a home run every 16.50 at-bats over the last five weeks, and that number goes up to every 12.60 at-bats against right-handed hitters such as Springer.
Springer has been hitting well recently, with 21 HardHits and six barrels over the last two weeks. All five of the home runs Severino has allowed to righties in this stretch have been hit off his sweeper and sinker, to which Springer has a 16.67%-barrel rate against that pitch-mix from RHP on the year.
Trust Burleson to Go Yard in St. Louis
While not quite as good hitting weather as the Athletics game, there are still good conditions for home runs at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. There is a +14% home run index due to the weather because of the hot temperatures and low barometric pressure, which both lead to carry.
Burleson was red hot about a month ago and has slightly cooled off but not to the point where he should be avoided. He has six barrels and 14 HardHits over the last 14 days, and eight HardHits and two barrels over the last seven. He did have a combined five HardHits and a barrel over his last two starts, so it is possible he is close to going on another heater.
The reason to back Burleson tonight is to the pitching matchup against Grant Holmes, who is significantly worse against lefties than righties. Over the last five weeks, he has allowed a home run every 16.33 at-bats against LHH, with a 8.16%-barrel rate, 44.74% HardHit rate and a 47.37% fly-ball rate. Burleson should be able to take him yard tonight.
Keith Goes Yard for the Tigers
The Tigers have a bunch of batters that mash, so Keith has gone a little under the radar recently but has been crushing the baseball. He leads the team with 20 HardHits over the last 14 days and leads the Tigers with 11 over the last seven days.
In this same seven-day stretch, he has a low ground-ball rate of 18.8%, which is a great combination of both hitting the ball hard and in the air. He also has an absurd eight HardHits and two barrels in his last three starts, so he has been raking consistently for a couple weeks now.
Like the previous two players, Keith has an excellent matchup against the Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo. Castillo has allowed a home run every 16.38 at-bats, that increases slightly to 15.50 at-bats against lefties. The biggest home run pitch for Castillo is the 4-seam fastball, which is responsible for three of the four home runs he has allowed to lefties and 45.58% of his pitch-mix.
Keith crushes 4-seamers from RHP, with a 13.24%-barrel rate, 63.79% HardHit rate and 39.66% fly-ball rate, all with the low strikeout rate of 14.10%. He’ll hit one tonight.
