Tua Tagovailoa’s time in Miami may be nearing a crossroads.
While the Miami Dolphins haven’t publicly hinted at moving on from their starting quarterback, The Athletic’s Jim Ayello painted a scenario that — while unlikely — no longer sounds impossible. Especially with pressure mounting on the coaching staff, front office, and the team’s overall direction heading into the 2025 season.
“There’s a world where this is Tagovailoa’s final season in Miami,” Ayello wrote. “To be clear, the odds of the Dolphins moving on after this season are remote (it’s far more likely after 2026), but it’s maybe not as crazy as you think. Imagine if the up-against-the-cap Dolphins struggle to a five- or six-win 2025 season. Ownership decides it’s time for a hard reset, and the new GM and coach don’t see Tagovailoa, with his concussion history and limitations as a pocket passer, as a franchise QB. They decide to draft a QB and look to trade Tagovailoa to a QB-needy team.”
It’s a hypothetical, but one that fits the direction Miami appears to be headed.
The Dolphins have already made several controversial moves this offseason — including trading away All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey and acquiring Darren Waller, a tight end who was retired a year ago. Meanwhile, head coach Mike McDaniel faces growing scrutiny after his first losing season in Miami and missing the playoffs.
“All of those now put a tremendous amount of pressure on McDaniel,” CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan wrote. “We already listed McDaniel as a head coach with one of the hottest seats in the NFL entering 2025.”
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Tagovailoa’s situation is tied closely to McDaniel’s fate. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio noted that while Tua’s deal is guaranteed through 2026, his long-term status depends heavily on who’s making decisions next year.
“If the Dolphins fall flat and change coaches, the next coach likely will want a fresh start at quarterback,” Florio wrote. “The next coach (and the next G.M., if owner Stephen Ross cleans house) may want to rip the Band-Aid off in one motion.”
Ayello added that while cutting Tagovailoa after the season would come with a massive $79 million dead cap hit, it wouldn’t set an NFL record. Meaning: even the contract wouldn’t be enough to guarantee security.
Tagovailoa has proven he can win when healthy. But injuries and inconsistency have clouded his ceiling as a franchise quarterback. If the Dolphins miss the playoffs again — and especially if leadership changes — 2025 may very well mark the end of his time in Miami, whether he’s ready or not.
