There might only be eight games on today’s MLB slate, but the good news is that the slate features solid home run situations to dive into. There are great weather + stadium games, or positive batter pitching matchups against guys that will allow home runs.
So, please check out our best MLB home run picks for today, June 30th.
Best Home Run Picks for Monday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks:
- Nick Kurtz (+475) at bet365
- Jazz Chisholm Jr (+500) at bet365
- Willy Adames (+560) at FanDuel
Kurtz Goes Yard in Tampa Bay
The stadium the Rays are playing in as their home stadium (Steinbrenner Field) this year is one of the best home run venues for left-handed hitters. Steinbrenner Field is the Yankees minor league park that mimics Yankee Stadium, which has a very short right field porch. Since this is a smaller stadium, the wind also has a more profound impact on the carry of the baseball.
So, this is all to say that a lefty hitter who can hit the ball hard and, in the air, has a great chance to go yard in Tampa, which is perfect for someone like Kurtz who can, you know, hit the ball hard and in the air.
Over the last 30 days against RHP, Kurtz has an absurd 25%-barrel rate, 78.6% HardHit rate and 50% fly-ball rate. He does an excellent job of not only hitting the baseball with solid contact but also getting the necessary launch angle to hit fly-balls. This combination is why he has been able to hit 11 home runs in his last 23 at-bats, giving him a very impressive ISO rate of .414 in that stretch of games.
The Rays starting pitcher Drew Masmussen is a good pitcher overall, but he can be had. Over his last 30 days, he has allowed a HardHit rate of 73% to lefties, with a slightly below-average fly-ball rate. That is a death sentence for a hitter such as Kurtz, who has as good an opportunity as any to clear a fence tonight.
Chisholm Jr Stays Hot in Toronto
Jazz Chisholm Jr did hit a home run yesterday, but we like him to go back-to-back as he has been on fire at the plate and has a decent matchup tonight.
Over the last two weeks, Chisholm Jr leads the Yankees in total HardHits (20), and is second on the team with eight barrels. Only Aaron Judge has more barrels than him with 10, but Chisholm Jr is one of 11 batters in the MLB have eight or more barrels over the last 14 days. Not only did he go yard yesterday, but he also had a triple that was 110.3 mph off the bat, it just did not quite have the launch angle to clear the outfield but was still crushed.
Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Blue Jays, who would be a pitching matchup to avoid if it were back in 2014, but Scherzer is not quite in his prime anymore. It is hard to know what to expect from him, however, as he has only made two starts on the year.
His first start did not go well, but that was back in March and then he missed roughly three months with an injury, and his first start back from that injury went well. So, backing Chisholm Jr to hit a home run is more-so backing a hot batter as opposed to fading a pitcher.
Adames Hits a Homer for Giants
Hitters on the Giants have the unfortunate reality of playing at an extremely pitcher-friendly home stadium where home runs are hard to come by. So, it is always nice when they are playing away and have solid home run situations, which is the case for Adames tonight. While the Diamondbacks stadium Chase Field is certainly not a hitters park due to their big outfields, it is not quite as bad a situation as playing in San Francisco.
The biggest advantage for Adames tonight is the pitching matchup against Ryne Nelson, who is absolutely the type of pitcher to target for batter home run props. Over his last five starts, he has allowed a home run every 14.33 at-bats against right-handed hitters, allowing a barrel rate of 11.63% and a HardHit rate of 45.71%.
The issue for Nelson is his 4-seam fastball, which he throws 60% of the time to RHH. That 4-seamer gets tagged, as righties have an ISO rate of .364 and a HardHit rate of 56.2%, all with a very low called-strike + whiff-rate of 17.6%. Adames, meanwhile, has an impressive barrel rate of 14.3% against the 4-seam FB from RHP on the season. +560 is a great value for Adames tonight.
