A perfect 2-0 MLB player props card on Sunday propelled us back into the black for the week ending our seven-day total at 10-7. Monday marks the start of a new week, and we’ve got eight games to choose from for our MLB prop bets tonight.
Our favorite game to target is the Athletics vs Rays contest, where we’re betting on Tampa Bay’s struggles versus lefties to continue.
- Jacob Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125 on bet365)
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-140 on bet365)
Lopez Mows Down the Rays
The Rays will face A’s southpaw Lopez, who’s in the midst of some terrific form. The 27-year-old has allowed one earned run total over his last four starts, striking out 29 over 23 innings of work. We’re getting +125 odds on him to fan 6+ batters tonight, a feat he’s accomplished in three straight starts and in four of his last five outings overall.
Lopez enters play tonight with an elite 11.5 K/9 rate, striking out batters at a 29% clip. The lefty is generating swings and misses on 12.5% of his pitches, while enemy hitters are making hard contact on only 26.1% of their swings.
Lopez and the Athletics will have their hands full against the potent Tampa Bay bats, but the Rays are a much different team against southpaws. Tampa Bay’s slugging percentage and OPS dips .64 and .83 points respectively versus lefties as opposed to righties, while their strikeout rate climbs from 24% to 26%.
No Rays player has been as productive this season as Brandon Lowe, but his numbers fall off a cliff against southpaws. Lowe is batting just .175 with 2 home runs versus lefties so far, compared to .302 with 16 dingers against right-handers.
Schwarber Feasts on the Padres
For our next selection, we’re betting over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI for the Phillies Schwarber. The Philly slugger has cleared this prop line eight times in his last 10 outings and is top-seven in MLB in home runs and OPS.
Schwarber is making hard contact at a 58% clip this season, which is about as high a rate as anyone not named Shohei Ohtani. His .285 ISO is his highest mark since the 2022 campaign, while his 16.2%-barrel rate is also among the league leaders.
The 32-year-old is slashing .306/.452/.510 over the last two weeks which is bad news for San Diego starter Matt Waldron. The right-hander will make his first start of 2025 this evening, after toiling in the minors for the first few months of the season.
Waldron’s kryptonite is the long ball, as he’s coughed up 1.5 home runs per nine innings on average in his big-league career. That’s problematic versus a slugger like Schwarber, but that’s just one of Waldron’s issues. He lacks velocity, topping out his fastball at 90 miles per hour. To make matters worse, Waldron’s produced only an 8.6% swing and miss rate in the bigs, while yielding a 39% hard hit rate.
Feel free to target all the Philly bats tonight, starting with Schwarber.
