Baseball’s Tommy John epidemic isn’t just ripping pitchers away from the game for a season at a time. It’s fundamentally changing the way fans get excited about the sport.
There’s no shortage of electric young pitchers in MLB. Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is redefining starting-pitching stardom. The Cincinnati Reds just watched Chase Burns find the first six outs of his career on strike three. Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski is battling both of them with an untouchable 95-mph slider.
These kinds of talents are supposed to unleash unbridled joy every fifth day. Instead, spectators are left managing their expectations, waiting for the shoe to drop with each pitch.
Few teams have taken these blows like the Miami Marlins. Former No. 3 pick Max Meyer appeared in two games before missing the 2023 season with Tommy John. A year later, Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara and phenom Eury Pérez rehabbed together on the trek back from elbow surgery. Meyer’s 2025 campaign has already ended at the hands of a hip injury. Neither Alcantara nor Pérez has found success in their first season back.
Pérez is still searching for length and effectiveness
Pérez has pitched in three games since returning from Tommy John, making his debut against the Pirates before divisional matchups against the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. He’s yet to complete the fifth inning.
Through three starts, the spindly 22-year-old has pitched to a 6.17 ERA. Avoiding the long ball has kept his 2.99 FIP in check, but on the basis of strikeouts and walks, he has struggled mightily.
Pérez has struck out 11 batters while walking seven in 11.2 innings. He didn’t punch anyone out against Washington, running his pitch count up to 79 pitches through four innings.
It’s no surprise Miami is being careful with its ace-in-waiting. It isn’t much of a shock that he hasn’t hit the ground running, either. Command is generally the last hurdle to clear on the way back from surgery, and at 6’8″ with incredibly long levers, repeating his mechanics will be a consistent challenge.
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Baseball Prospectus noted in 2017 that one can pitch pain-free without developing the proprioception necessary to throw strikes consistently. That may be what Pérez is dealing with as he grows comfortable on Major League mounds.
This has been most evident in his curveball, which he used as an out pitch as a rookie. In 2023, he threw it in the zone just 29.9% of the time (14th percentile, via Pitcher List), and it generated whiffs on 54.3 percent of swings (99th percentile). Thus far in 2025, he’s both landing them in the zone more and completely wasting them, missing the shadow zone where those swings and misses pile up. As a result, he’s recorded an 8.7% whiff rate on the pitch.
He’s throwing it with less velocity and more vertical depth, making for a “loopier” pitch that plays worse off his fastball. Combined with too many arm-side misses with his heater, Pérez has been left with fewer favorable counts and a less effective out pitch, making those aforementioned strikeouts harder to find.
Arizona could offer refuge for Miami
On Friday night, Pérez will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, looking for his first victory and quality start of the season. There’s reason to believe he could find both in Arizona.
The Marlins will benefit from not having to face outfielder Corbin Carroll or catcher Gabriel Moreno, both of whom are on the injured list. The bottom of the Diamondbacks’ lineup is punchless, and he’ll have a handedness advantage against Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Geraldo Perdomo (a switch hitter who is far better against southpaws).
As for his recovery, fans can take solace in the command being a waiting game. With more innings will likely come the feel that’s been missing, and the downstream effects of better command would show up in the box score. That development could lend itself to the extension that made him dangerous as a rookie and return his breaking balls to their 2023 selves.
Fortunately for Miami, its organizational timeline and Pérez’s youth leave plenty of room for turbulence before anyone should be concerned. He should eventually get back to the trajectory that earned the eyes of South Florida, but questionable starts were always going to be part of that process.
The Marlins will hope he takes another step forward on Friday, even against a formidable Diamondbacks lineup.
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