The puck is about to drop on the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Hockey fans are in for a treat for the next week, as the 2025 international tournament is set to get underway in Montreal on Wednesday and conclude next Thursday in Boston.
The big names at the games are endless — McDavid, Matthews, Crosby, Hedman, Barkov, MacKinnon, Eichel, Aho, Nylander. That’s just a few of the 92 NHL stars who are representing their home countries at the competition.
Four teams — USA, Canada, Sweden and Finland — are going head-to-head to determine a world champion. It’s the first time hockey fans have been treated to true best-on-best competition since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.
Will the USA knock off Canada in their rivalry game? How many points will Connor McDavid score? What are the chances Sweden or Finland walk away with gold medals?
The Sporting News is handing out predictions for the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off.
4 Nations Face-Off predictions
Who wins USA vs. Canada?
The championship may be on Feb. 20, but all calendars have Feb. 15 circled on the calendar — USA vs. Canada.
After Finland and Sweden square off in their own rivalry game earlier in the day, two of the biggest rivals in sports go head-to-head at the Bell Centre on Saturday. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby vs. Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes and Matthew Tkachuk in one of the most highly-anticipated matchups of the season.
The USA is incredibly well-rounded, with depth at all three phases. Connor Hellebuyck is the best goalie on the planet, the defensive group is ridiculously sound, and for the first time ever on the international stage, it’s not wild to say the United States is just as skilled, if not more, than Canada.
Over the years, the USA has closed the gap between its players and Canada’s. The results are evident at the junior level, and it’s about time it’s proven at the senior level. This year’s 4 Nations Face-Off can pick up one of the biggest wins in recent international history with a win over Canada in the round robin.
Prediction: USA 4, Canada 2
Who wins the 4 Nations Face-Off?
If the USA knocks off Canada, surely that means they are playing for a championship?
Think again, American fans.
The beauty of a four-team international best-on-best is that every game has the ability to be a thrilling, suspenseful affair. When the world’s elite-level talent is all gathered together, anything can happen, and that means overtime and upsets.
Sweden, Canada and the USA are all going to go to war against one another. While Finland has the capacity to throw a wrench in the equation further, their weak defensive group will be their Achilles heel, and I think the group finishes without a win, letting the other three battle for the two spots in the final.
I see the Swedes, Americans and Canadians all exchanging wins and losses against one another, resulting in the trio of nations finishing with two wins and one loss — USA beats Canada, Canada beats Sweden and Sweden beats the USA.
The key here is going to be if the victories ended in regulation or in overtime. Remember at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey when North America defeated Sweden in overtime to end group play, but it was the Swedes that advanced to the knockout stage along with the Russians out of the group? That was because despite the loss, the Swedes got the one point it needed to finish ahead of the North American youngsters.
That’s going to happen again, and I think it’s going to result in the Americans losing out on a spot in the championship, especially if the rivalry thriller is going to end up in overtime.
With tiebreakers put into play, this is how the standings after round-robin play will end up:
- 1. Canada
- 2. Sweden
- 3. USA
- 4. Finland
A game between Canada and Sweden with a gold medal on the line would be incredibly enticing. Sure, Canada-USA would be the showstopper, but the battle of these two giants would pit the best defensive group at the tournament against an incredibly elite top-six forward group.
It’s incredibly hard to pick against a roster that has McDavid, MacKinnon and Crosby all together. You add in the depth at the forward group and the sound defensive unit, and the team looks nearly unstoppable.
Sure, the goaltending is a weakness of the group, but Binnington has proven in the past he can get hot at the right time. Plus, with all the offensive power, Canada should not be relying solely on goaltending to win games.
The USA may have bested Canada in the rivalry game, but I see the Canadians getting the last laugh by earning the championship win in Boston.
4 Nations Face-Off champion prediction: Canada 3, Sweden 0.
Who wins 4 Nations Face-Off MVP?
The more things change, the more they stay the same. If Canada is going to win a gold medal, it almost assuredly is going to be from the efforts of McDavid, MacKinnon and Makar. But it’s going to be Captain Canada who comes through when the maple leaf needs it most.
For the first time since spring of 2022, Crosby is essentially playing playoff hockey. The captain of Canada hasn’t competed in games with high stakes since May 2022, with the Penguins missing the playoffs the last two postseason in the NHL. That’s a chance for Crosby to shine on when the lights are brightest — which is when the three-time Stanley Cup champion does his best work.
He’s a two-time Conn Smythe MVP, World Cup of Hockey MVP and two-time Olympic gold medalist. Even at 37 years old, he’s still a top-10 player with an impeccable pedigree who scored one of the biggest goals in Canadian Olympic history.
How can you not believe that Crosby will come through for his country once again?
MVP prediction: Sidney Crosby, Canada
