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Who is favored to win Super Bowl 2024? Odds, line, expert picks & predictions 49ers vs. Chiefs | Sporting News

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here.

Football fans have had two weeks to read thousands of pages, listen to hours of podcasts and watch endless shows breaking down Chiefs vs. 49ers from every possible angle. By now, you don’t probably don’t need — or even want — anymore beyond the basics:

Who is favored to win? And who is actually going to win?

Let’s get right to our expert roundtable’s opening moneyline, spread, and over/under picks for Super Bowl 58 between the Chiefs and 49ers.

Who is favored to win Super Bowl 2024?

San Francisco opened as a slight 1.5-point favorite with the line fluctuating over the last two weeks before setting on 2. The over-under for total points is 47.5

The public is riding with the Chiefs. According to BetMGM’s latest insights, 67% of all bets and 78% of the money wagered against the spread is on the underdog defending Super Bowl champions. In his career including the regular season and playoffs, Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog and 9-3 overall — including wins over the Bills and Ravens this postseason.

Super Bowl 2024 predictions: Expert picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers

Sloan Piva, betting analyst: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23

  • Chiefs win straight up (+110) and cover the spread (+2)
  • 50 points goes OVER the total (47.5)

We’ll be playing some Tina Turner after Super Bowl 58 because Patrick Mahomes is “simply the best”. Travis Kelce reemerging as the most dominating pass-catcher in football at just the right time hasn’t hurt, either, nor has the tough running of second-year back Isiah Pacheco.

The Chiefs look unstoppable at the right time, and their dynasty will extend to three Super Bowl wins in four years. Maybe Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift as the confetti rains down on them after the game.

Vinnie Iyer, NFL writer: Chiefs 31, 49ers 27

  • Chiefs win (+110) and cover (+2)
  • 58 points sails OVER the total (47.5)

Defense, coaching, and Patrick Mahomes are all on Kansas City’s side. Although the 49ers can be confident with their offense around Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, their defense — especially against the run — has developed into a real concern in the playoffs. Mahomes is motivated to repeat (so are fellow difference-makers Travis Kelce and Chris Jones) and San Francisco doesn’t have enough to get in their way and halt their momentum.

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Jacob Camenker, senior NFL content producer: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23

  • Chiefs win (+110) and cover (+2)
  • 50 points goes OVER the total (47.5)

The 49ers have the tools needed to run on the Chiefs, but if San Francisco can’t get pressure on Patrick Mahomes, it could be a long day for the 49ers defense. With Kansas City’s offense heating up in recent weeks, the Chiefs might have what it takes to knock out the 49ers and repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Matt Lutovsky, senior NFL editor: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20

  • Chiefs win (+110) and cover (+2)
  • 44 points goes UNDER the total (47.5)

San Francisco is better on paper, but the Chiefs are playing better football right now. Perhaps the two-week break will cool down their red-hot defense, but I’m not betting against the best QB in football when he’s going against an up-and-comer who’s been merely “meh” in the playoffs. The defenses should shine, but the Chiefs will find a way to sneak out a win.

MORE: Super Bowl QB props | 49ers vs. Chiefs RB props | Receiving props 

Bill Bender, senior NFL writer: Chiefs 30, 49ers 24

  • Chiefs win (+110) and cover (+2)
  • 54 points cruises to the OVER (47.5)

Isiah Pacheco is the X-factor and the Chiefs’ defense won’t allow more than 24 points. But it comes down to a storied connection — the one between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce — as the difference-maker that propels the Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl championships.

Paul Costanzo, Catena Media: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

  • Chiefs win (+110) and cover (+2)
  • 51 points goes OVER (47.5)

San Francisco’s defense has been leakier than anticipated in these playoffs, while the Chiefs have been as advertised on that side of the ball. A reinvigorated Travis Kelce doesn’t hurt, either.

Travis Pulver, Catena Media: 49ers 27, Chiefs 20

  • 49ers win (-130) and cover (-2)
  • 47 points barely goes UNDER (47.5)

The Chiefs get out to an early lead, much like they did against the Ravens. However, Kyle Shanahan will make the necessary adjustments at halftime and the 49ers will control the second half.

Kristopher Johnson, Catena Media: Chiefs 28, 49ers 20

  • Chiefs win (+110) and cover (+2)
  • 48 points goes slightly OVER (47.5)

You may have heard this before: Mahomes will be the difference in the end. The man has an uncanny ability to come through in the clutch.

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