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Waste Management Phoenix Open: Betting odds, props, predictions for PGA Tour’s rowdiest stop

Latest odds to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

 

One thing the PGA Tour has seen over the first four weeks is its fair share of tranquility.

There was the calm, ocean breezes and tropical themes on Maui and Oahu over the first two weeks and then the relaxing vibes and ocean views of Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach the next two weeks. Well, except for the horrid winds and rains at Pebble Beach this year.

Ah, it was just a month of serenity.

Well, that all stops this week.

Welcome to the loudest event on the PGA Tour, the Waste Management Open played at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, AZ.

For all of the laid-back atmosphere the first four weeks brought us, this week’s tournament ramps up the volume to as loud as it gets.

How loud? Take a couple thousand of your closest friends (or frat buddies) and jam them all around the TPC Scottsdale Course (with some 16,000 fans on the 16th hole alone during peak times) and you’ve got a party of massive proportions.

How massive? Before they started limiting tickets (after 2018 when almost 720,000 fans came through the turnstiles over the four days), about 500,000 fans will be on hand over the four days.

They will be there to party … oh, and to watch a little golf.

About the only time the party takes a break is when the fans pause for a couple of seconds to boo or cheer shots from their favorite players on the completely-enclosed par-3 16th hole.

And that 16th hole has been home to roars that can be deafening including back in 1997 when Tiger Woods aced the hole.

The crowd went ballistic and there were beer cups flying everywhere during the celebration.

Impressive? Yes. Over-the-top? Absolutely. Scary? No doubt.

But they are trying to tone it down just a little despite the area around that 16th green being pelted with beer cups a few times in 2023.

Hopefully there’s a new plan in place in 2024 to bring a little more civility back to party central.

Let’s take a minute to wade through the fans, see if we can find a little solitude somewhere on the course and come up with a winner or two this week.

While fans should bring a hat and plenty of sunscreen to the Valley of the Sun, don’t forget the ear plugs as well.

You’ll thank us later.

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Scottie Scheffler WM Phoenix Open odds

We’ve been on the Scheffler bandwagon since Day 1 and we’re not about to get off any time soon.

Scheffler, coming off a T-6 last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, is the favorite at .

 

And while those are low odds for us, there’s absolutely no reason anyone else should be in the conversation as he’s also the defending champion.

Better make that the two-time defending champ as he’s going for three in a row.

Over his last eight rounds here, he has one score in the 70s, a one-over-par 71 two years ago when he won in a playoff. Over the other seven rounds his worst score is 68 (three times) and he posted a best of 62.

Face it: He’s going to go low.

The 2023 Player of the Year won twice last year including this tournament and the upcoming Players Championship.

Starting off 2024, he was T-7 at The Sentry in Maui and followed that up with a T-17 at The American Express.

Add in last week’s solid outing and there’s one rule we now live by: Never bet against Scottie Scheffler.

Is it a good week to bet on Justin Thomas odds?

Justin Thomas is still looking for that first win since he captured the 2022 PGA Championship.

If that sounds weird to you, think about how it sounds to Thomas who comes into this week with odds to win.

He didn’t make the FedEx Cup playoffs last season for the first time and to say he was disappointed would be an understatement.

 

He’s out to change all of that and has started off 2024 solid. He was T-3 in his first event out of the gate, The American Express, and followed that up last week with a T-3 at the rain-shortened AT&T.

He’s looking to make up for a lost season and a win this week would get everything back into alignment.

And it’s a course that fits him well.

He was solo fourth here last year and T-9 in 2022.

Whatever he worked on in the offseason, which was longer than he would have wanted after missing the playoffs, is paying off well.

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Phoenix Open longshot bet to consider

How about backing last week’s winner, Wyndham Clark, at .

 

He had T-29 and T-39 finishes in his first two events of 2024 before a course-record 60 in the third, and final, round of last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am vaulted him up 22 spots and earned him his third PGA Tour victory.

He was also T-10 here in 2023.

Last week won’t be his last victory and we’ve seen that momentum is a huge factor when it comes to betting golfers who are hot.

Waste Management Phoenix Open hole-in-one prop odds, and other prop bets

We’ve got a few prop bets that stand out to us.

The first one from DraftKings is the hole-in-one prop. With all of the energy the half-a-million fans will bring to the course, especially on the famed par-3 16th hole, we’re betting there will be monumental roars when an ace or two are recorded.

For any player to make an ace during the tournament, the odds are -120. But, gamblers can get +400 odds there will be a hole-in-one in the first round. They can also get the same odds for a second-round ace so if you’re feeling lucky, the odds are there.

Over at Caesars Sportsbook, check out the bet that there will be a playoff.

Here’s what you may not know: Three of the last six tournaments in Scottsdale have gone to a playoff. Starting in 2018, it’s been playoff, no playoff, playoff, no playoff, playoff, no playoff.

And that brings us to 2024 and if the pattern stays the same of a playoff every other year, it’s time for another playoff.

Now, at +360 it’s a good bet. But look a little deeper and there just might be more money to be made.

And that brings us back to DraftKings where a three-player playoff comes in at +1100 and a four-person playoff checks in at +6500.

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