Jose Mourinho and AS Roma will feel confident about their prospects of reaching the Europa League quarterfinals as they travel to Spain to take on top-four La Liga side Real Sociedad in the second leg of their Round of 16 matchup.
Following a 2-0 win at home in the first leg, Roma are in a comfortable position and know their opponents are vulnerable thanks to a recent poor run of form.
Still, there’s work to be done against La Real who held over 60 percent possession in the first leg and will likely do so again at home, looking to put the Italians under pressure throughout the 90 minutes on the northern coast of Spain.
Mourinho knows European competition better than any other coach in history, having won all three tournaments in the modern era, including this Europa League tournament in 2017 with Manchester United, and leading Roma to Europa Conference League glory last campaign. He’ll know exactly what is required to push the Italian side into this year’s last eight.
The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 52.4% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 50 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 37 of 60 match outcomes via his three-way moneyline leans to date.
Real Sociedad vs Roma match facts
- Date: Thursday, March 16
- Kickoff Time: 4 pm ET / 8 pm GMT / 7 am AEDT (Fri, Mar. 17)
- Location: Reale Arena (San Sebastian, Spain)
- Official: Istvan Kovacs (ROM)
- First leg: AS Roma 2-0 Real Sociedad (Mar. 9, 2023)
Real Sociedad vs Roma prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Roma (+280)
- Score prediction: Real Sociedad 1-2 Roma
It’s quite surprising to see the hosts Real Sociedad favoured to the tune of even-money odds to win the 90 minutes, considering they have not won any of their last five matches across all competitions, and just one in their last nine. They still sit fourth in the La Liga table, but their European dreams both domestically and abroad risk falling apart.
Given the nearly 3/1 odds for Roma, the Italian side is a great play to win here even if they don’t have to come away victorious to advance.
to score Y / N
|Over / Under
|+100||+225||+280||+110 / -155||+130 / -185||-650||+380|
|+112||+215||+252||+100 / -156||+142 / -182||-770||+420|
|1/1||23/10||13/5||11/10, 4/6||11/8, 8/15||1/8||9/2|
|2.05||3.05||3.90||2.10 / 1.67||2.45 / 1.52||1.13||5.50|
|2.18||3.30||3.70||2.13 / 1.72||—||1.16||6.40|
Real Sociedad vs Roma best bet
- Pick: Roma double chance
- Odds: -130 (BetMGM)
I’m honestly shocked that Real Sociedad are favoured by such a wide margin in this match. Sure, Roma are on the road, and they dropped an embarrassing one over the weekend to Sassuolo. But Roma are the better side here, unquestionably.
Roma’s two recent defeats were quirky ones, and should be taken with a grain of salt. The loss to Sassuolo was a silly one, going a man down just before halftime. But Roma were actually the better side after being reduced a player, which gives hope that the calamitous first half was just an anomaly.
I’d be tempted to take Roma to win at nearly 3/1 odds, but given their 2-0 lead, they’d be more than happy with a draw. Still, I don’t think Jose Mourinho will want to tempt fate with just a two goal lead, and should play this one with a strong side from the start and wait before letting off the pedal until the final result is more secure.
Real Sociedad vs Roma prop bet
- Pick: Paulo Dybala anytime goal scorer
- Odds: +275 (BetMGM)
With few goals expected, the goal scoring odds for this match are somewhat inflated, and that’s to our benefit. As Tammy Abraham continues to flounder in front of goal, Paulo Dybala has finally come close to reaching his stellar pre-World Cup form.
Dybala has two goals in his last four Serie A matches, and has taken multiple shots in all but three of his last 16 league games. When Dybala does shoot, he picks his spots well, registering a high quality 0.157 xG per shot mark this season. Expect him to be a main avenue for attacking play here even on the road.
Real Sociedad vs Roma flier bet
- Pick: Leonardo Spinazzola to assist a goal
- Odds: +650 (FanDuel)
Betting assists are always a bit finnicky, because unlike goal scorers, assists can be seemingly dished out at random, and they require another player to finish the chance created.
Still, this Roma attack is unquestionably better with Leonardo Spinazzola back from his serious knee injury. The 29-year-old left wingback already has two assists and a goal in just four Serie A matches since mid-February, plus another two assists in Europa League play, feeding both goals in the 2-0 second-leg win over RB Salzburg in the previous round.
Tammy Abraham has been poor in front of goal this season from an expected goals perspective, so relying on him to score is a fool’s errand, but others in the team are contributing enough that there’s a great chance of this one coming through.
Real Sociedad vs Roma live stream, TV channel
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