Chelsea’s European lives are on the line as they host Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchup.
Dortmund won the first leg at home 1-0 on a goal from Karim Adeyemi, but the German international is now injured, meaning others will have to step up for BVB if they hope to hold the advantage and progress to the quarterfinals.
The Blues, meanwhile, are in dire goalscoring form, and while a Wesley Fofana header was enough to topple relegation-threatened Leeds over the weekend, they will need to find a way through the Dortmund back line to have any hopes of progressing themselves.
Graham Potter’s job may be at jeopardy as well, given that the former Brighton manager has failed to effectively turn the squad’s fortunes around after his hire in the fall. With Todd Boehly’s recent additions having little impact up front, there’s a sense of urgency here for Chelsea to spark a turnaround and reach the quarterfinals against a German side in sensational form.
LIVE: Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund Champions League updates
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Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund odds
Despite the very different form for the two clubs, Chelsea are favourites at home to come away with a regulation victory at Stamford Bridge. However, that doesn’t nearly tell the whole story.
Dortmund are considered favourites to advance thanks to their slim 1-0 lead from the first leg, which comes in contrast to the straight regulation moneyline. There’s also some confusion from the books on whether there will be goals in this match, as Dortmund score in bunches but Chelsea have proven defensively stout.
The late line movement, however, has favoured the home side, with Chelsea seeing a slight bump in the betting market.
to score Y / N
|-140 / +100||-154 / -101||8/11, 1/1||1.70 / 2.05|
|Over / Under
|-145 / +105||-138 / +109||4/5, 10/11||1.82 / 1.92|
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund: 3 things to know
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund match facts
- Date: Tuesday, March 7
- Kickoff Time: 3:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm GMT / 7:00 am AEDT (Wed, Mar. 8)
- Location: Stamford Bridge (London, England)
- Official: Danny Makkelie (NED)
- First leg: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Chelsea (Feb. 15, 2023)
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund team news
Chelsea continue to be beset by injuries, with Thiago Silva the latest to go down, as his knee injury will cost him at least a month. Cesar Azpilicueta remains sidelined with a concussion, and both Mason Mount and Reece James are doubts after missing the weekend match against Leeds. N’Golo Kante and Christian Pulisic have both returned to training but are building back fitness before making a return to match play. Edouard Mendy remains sidelined with a broken finger, while Armando Broja is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Dortmund are flying but do have injury concerns to deal with. Most notably, Karim Adeyemi was in great form before succumbing to a hamstring injury that will keep him out for another few weeks. Donyell Malen just went down with an ankle injury, while Youssoufa Moukoko is dealing with one as well. Mateu Morey, Gregor Kobel, Abdoulaye Kamara, and Julien Duranville are all ruled out as well, but all those listed aside should return before the international break.
MORE: How long is Thiago Silva out for? Chelsea defender suffers knee injury
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund key stats
- The first leg matchup was the first-ever meeting between Chelsea and Borussia Dortmund.
- Chelsea have not scored multiple goals in a match across all competitions since December 27 in a 2-0 win over Bournemouth, a run of 12 matches. They have conceded more than one goal in three of those games.
- Since losing their final two matches before the World Cup break, Borussia Dortmund have won 10 straight matches, including eight in Bundesliga play plus a DFB Pokal win and the first leg victory over Chelsea in the Champions League. It is their longest winning streak across all competitions since the 2011/12 season when they won 10 straight in league and DFB-Pokal play through mid-December to early March.
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Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
- Moneyline lean: Borussia Dortmund (+290)
- Score prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
- Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund (-165)
The Blues are not in good enough goalscoring form to overcome this deficit, and while their structure under Graham Potter has improved, they will struggle to keep out a sensational Dortmund attack.
Still, the hosts should find the back of the net, given they put up 21 shots against Dortmund in the first leg and compiled 2.20 xG, and if they do so early enough, they could force Dortmund to open up and create an open, end-to-end match.
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund: best bet
- Pick: Both teams to score — YES
- Odds: -130 (BetMGM)
There is some serious trepidation over the Chelsea attack for the last few weeks, and understandably so. The Blues haven’t scored multiple goals in a single game once in 2023, and they lack a true goalscoring threat.
Yet it’s not for a lack of chances, but instead poor finishing which has plagued this Chelsea front line for months. They put up 2.20 xG against Borussia Dortmund without return, plus a 1.87 xG against Leeds over the weekend with just Wesley Fofana’s header to show for it. They came up empty on 1.41 xG against Fulham and 1.84 xG against Liverpool in scoreless draws, and again were blanked on 1.62 xG against Southampton in defeat. On the season as a whole, Chelsea’s -9.03 xG differential is fourth-worst in the league, behind only West Ham, Liverpool, and just 1.31 back of “leaders” Everton.
It’s honestly surprising the value isn’t better here given all the factors, but even at this point the value exists to make a legitimate play. The Dortmund defence can be breached, put under pressure for long spells by RB Leipzig over the weekend.
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund prop bet
- Pick: Half with most goals — 1H
- Odds: +200 (BetMGM)
Betting the first half to feature the most goals comes with significant risk, but here it makes a ton of sense. This season Borussia Dortmund have scored more first-half goals which is a rarity in today’s game, and they profited from that again this past weekend as two goals before the break were enough to down RB Leipzig 2-1. Additionally, Chelsea have a higher first-half expected goals total in league play this year, but have been poor in the finishing department.
Chelsea will be gunning for an early goal to put Dortmund back under pressure, and the Germans will likely bunker late if they are still in front on aggregate.
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Champions League matches live with fuboTV in USA
|USA||CBS, TUDN, UniMas||fuboTV, Paramount+, ViX+, TUDN, Univision|
|UK||BT Sport 1||BT Sport|
|New Zealand||—||Spark Sport|
|India||Sony TEN 2, Sony TEN 3, Sony TEN 4||Sony LIV, JioTV|
|Hong Kong||beIN Sports 3||beIN Sports Connect|
|Malaysia||beIN Sports 3||beIN Sports Connect|
|Singapore||beIN Sports 3||beIN Sports Connect, StarHub TV+|
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