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Real Madrid vs. Las Palmas prediction, odds, expert tips and best bets for La Liga match

While it may seem like Real Madrid is enjoying a trip to the sunny Canary Islands this weekend as Los Blancos take a road visit to Las Palmas on Saturday, their reality is more of a splash of cold water to the face.

Defeat to derby rivals Atletico Madrid a week ago ushered Real Madrid into an early Copa del Rey exit, and they needed lots of referee assistance a very late winner from Dani Carvajal to rescue them from an embarrassing result at home against league bottom-feeders Almeria midweek.

There’s no Jude Bellingham for Los Blancos this time out, as the England star is suspended for yellow card accumulation, meaning Carlo Ancelotti must shuffle his deck to conjure a turnaround for Madrid before more damage is done to their campaign.

Despite it all, Madrid sits a point back of leaders Girona with a game in hand, meaning they are in command of the title race should things go their way.

Las Palmas, newly promoted from the Segunda Division this season, have done well for themselves. Los Amarillos are up to eighth in the league table on the heels of consecutive victories over Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano, which came straight after pushing Barcelona to the brink earlier this month in a late 2-1 defeat.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Las Palmas vs Real Madrid and bet La Liga matches

Real Madrid vs. Las Palmas prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+350)
  • Score prediction: Las Palmas 1-1 Real Madrid

This will not be an easy match for a Real Madrid side struggling for form, and Las Palmas have thwarted Los Blancos before. Madrid needed a late double from Cristiano Ronaldo to rescue a point via a 3-3 scoreline back in 2017, and in the meeting before that Sergio Araujo snatched an 85th-minute equaliser in a 2-2 draw.

Still, Las Palmas is a clear example of fool’s gold this season. They won’t care — it has them almost surely back in La Liga next year, but the peripherals suggest a drop-off at some point. Los Amarillos lean so heavily on sensational goalkeeper Alvaro Valles that at some point it will fall apart. Valles sports an astonishing +12.39 xGOTA/goals conceded differential — the next closest in Spain is Girona’s Juan Carlos at +4.1, while the next closest in Europe’s big five leagues is Alban Lafont of Nantes at +6.74.

Unfortunately for Real Madrid, who are without Jude Bellingham, an in-form goalkeeper is just about their worst nightmare at the current juncture. If Real Madrid are frustrated in the same way Barcelona were a few weeks prior, there could be an upset on the cards.

  DraftKings
(USA)
Las Palmas win +550
Draw +350
Real Madrid win -235
Both teams
to score Y/N
-120 / -105
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-155 / +115
Real Madrid
-1.5 goals
+130
Las Palmas
+1.5 goals
-150

Real Madrid vs. Las Palmas match facts

  • Date: Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024
  • Kickoff Time: 6:15 p.m. local (10:15 a.m. ET / 7:15 a.m. PT)
  • Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas, Spain)
  • Referee: Cesar Soto Grado, VAR: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias
  • Last meeting: Real Madrid 2-0 Las Palmas (Sep. 27, 2023 | La Liga)

Real Madrid vs. Las Palmas: best bet

  • Pick: Las Palmas +1 goal handicap
  • Odds: +115 (DraftKings)

While the moneyline is a risky play, backing Las Palmas to keep the match close is a better way to go. The double chance sits at +180, but you can cover yourself for a late Madrid winner still earning plus odds by playing the single-goal handicap.

Las Palmas were cut down late against Barcelona earlier this year after falling a man down in added time, and if their goalkeeper can continue his exceptional form here, there’s a good chance they could come away with points. As havoc continues at the top of the Spanish league standings (Girona fell to Mallorca in the Copa del Rey last time out, are they in trouble?), back Madrid needs more time to recover from their midseason doldrums.

Real Madrid vs. Las Palmas prop bet

  • Pick: Real Madrid 7+ shots on target
  • Odds: +135 (FanDuel)

Even if Las Palmas pulls out a result, it will require exceptional goalkeeping to make it happen — as they’ve had all year. Nobody in La Liga has faced more shots on target per goal conceded than Las Palmas, as Alvaro Valles has let in a goal just once every 5.65 efforts on frame.

It won’t come as a surprise that Real Madrid have the second-most shots on target in La Liga this year, only a single effort behind Barcelona, so they should manage a good amount of chances in this match. When they met last time back in September, Los Blancos ripped off nine shots on target in a 2-0 victory, with Valles making seven saves and keeping the match close outside of two Madrid goals bracketing halftime.

Real Madrid vs. Las Palmas live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA ESPN Deportes Fubo USA, ESPN+
Canada  — TSN+
UK Viaplay Sports 2 LaLigaTV

Every La Liga match across the 2023/24 season is broadcast in the United States on ESPN+ with both English and Spanish options available. This Real Madrid road game at Las Palmas has been earmarked for Spanish-language television broadcast on ESPN Deportes, which is available to stream on Fubo.


In Canada, TSN owns the broadcast rights for the current La Liga campaign, with this match available solely on their streaming service TSN+. In the UK, this match can be watched on Viaplay Sports 2, with streaming on LaLigaTV.

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