Two teams in different stages of repairing a wayward season clash as Manchester United travel to Villa Park to take on a slumping Aston Villa on Sunday.
Villa have been amongst the Champions League places all season long, but are at great risk of seeing that slip away as they look broken over the past few weeks. With one win in their last five matches across all competitions, and just two points separating them from fifth-placed Tottenham, Unai Emery’s side are at a crossroads.
A win here at home against Manchester United could vault Villa right back into a position of strength, while dropped points of any kind could potentially see them fall out of the top four altogether.
United, meanwhile, feel as though they could be coming out of the mid-season doldrums. The Red Devils have four wins in their last five across all competitions, unbeaten in that span since falling to Nottingham Forest in late December.
USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Man United vs Aston Villa and bet Premier League matches
Man United vs Aston Villa prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Man United (+230)
- Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Man United
There’s reason to believe both these teams can come away with three points, and reason to argue why both of them will fall short. Manchester United have been susceptible to disappointment all season long, unable to sustain longer stretches of form, while Aston Villa are mired in a considerable slump at the moment.
The key to this matchup lies in their most recent meeting, which itself was a relatively even affair. Aston Villa had the better performance across the 90 minutes, but Alejandro Garnacho was electric and sparked Man United to an emotional comeback win. Ollie Watkins was invisible in that match, held without a single shot across the 90 minutes, as he was in their previous meeting as well. In fact, Watkins has 11 career shots against Manchester United in 617 total Premier League minutes, or about one every hour — it’s just not his favorite team to play against.
Aston Villa have more players who can score goals, but with their No. 9 so consistently blanketed, it’s hard to find a winner that way on a consistent basis. We’ll give Villa a boost here for being hosts, but it’s hard to imagine they will get all three points.
|Aston Villa win
|Man United win
to score Y/N
|-215 / +160
|Over / Under
|+130 / -190
Man United vs Aston Villa match facts
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 4:30 p.m. local (11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: Villa Park (Birmingham, England)
- Referee: Robert Jones, VAR: David Coote
- Last meeting: Man United 3-2 Aston Villa (Dec. 26, 2023 | Premier League)
Man United vs Aston Villa: best bet
- Pick: 11+ shots on target
- Odds: +130 (FanDuel)
While we’re staying away from the total shots prop due to wide variance in how these teams play through 90 minute games, they are both amongst the most efficient shooting teams in the Premier League. Even in low-scoring matches with few real chances, both sides do manage to get efforts on target, even if the quality of those efforts aren’t exactly sky-high.
Aston Villa, in particular, do well regardless of game flow — in their last four adverse results, two 3-1 defeats to Chelsea and Newcastle plus 0-0 draws with Chelsea and Everton, they managed at least five shots on target in each game. Villa rank third in the Premier League in percentage of shots on target, behind only Man City and Brighton.
Meanwhile, United are third-worst in the league, but the Red Devils are in good attacking form, yet to be shut out in 2024 and scoring at least two goals in five of their last six games, so they should manage to contribute to this total as well. Even if the game ends up a low-scoring affair, there should be opportunities for the strikers to test both goalkeepers.
Man United vs Aston Villa prop bet
- Pick: Casemiro to be booked
- Odds: +130 (DraftKings)
Brazilian punisher Casemiro has been notoriously loose with his discipline since joining the Red Devils, and while he’s reigned it in some this season, an injury that negated two months of his campaign means on the whole, his recent correction remains part of a small sample size.
Casemiro has only been booked twice this season in 10 Premier League appearances, but those have come in his last five matches. He’s been booked twice in three career matches officiated by Robert Jones, and while he’s gone two of his last three Premier League games without even being whistled for a foul, the other was a three-foul showing in which he was cautioned, so that version of Casemiro remains very much alive. Even then, he lost six of his 11 duels, so he has the propensity to end up in situations where fouls occur.
Playing alongside the in-form Kobbie Mainoo allows Casemiro to shed some defensive responsibilities, but if Eriksen returns from a two-match run on the bench, it will see the Brazilian back to his usual self, and even if Mainoo plays again, Casemiro making it two straight matches without a foul is unthinkable.
Man United vs Aston Villa live stream, TV channel
|USA Network, Telemundo
|Fubo USA, Peacock, Telemundo Deportes en Vivo
|Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League
|Sky Go Extra
This Premier League match has been earmarked for television broadcast on USA Network in the United States, with streaming available on Fubo.
There is also a Spanish-language broadcast available on Telemundo, which is also available on Fubo.
In Canada, the exclusive broadcast partner of the Premier League is Fubo Canada, who streams every single game across the 2023/24 season.
The match will be broadcast on Sky Sports channels in the UK, with streaming available on their platform Sky Go Extra.
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