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Man City vs Arsenal prediction, odds, expert betting tips and best bets for Premier League title clash

One of the tightest and most intriguing Premier League title races is set for another major twist as league leaders Arsenal visit defending champions Manchester City on Sunday in one of the biggest matchups of the season.

The Gunners sit atop the table on goal difference, as they are level on 64 points with Liverpool. City sit just a single point back of those two in third, foreshadowing potentially the closest three-horse title race in a decade.

You have to go back to 2014 for the last time three clubs finished within five points of one another, when Chelsea were leading after 26 matches but faded as Man City and Liverpool overtook them.

In the 31 seasons since the rebranded Premier League began in 1992, there have been just three such finishes with three clubs within five points atop the table. For even larger context, since the 1981/82 season when victories began to secure three points, only four times has the English top flight season finished with three teams within four points.

Through 28 matches of the current campaign and just 10 more to go, this is the final game left on the Premier League schedule where two of the three title contenders meet on the pitch. Thus, with such narrow margins and high stakes, there is a tension and excitement in the air which promises to spill out onto the pitch.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Man City vs Arsenal and bet Premier League matches

Man City vs Arsenal prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+260)
  • Score prediction: Man City 1-1 Arsenal

Last year, when these clubs met in April with title implications at stake, Man City ran away as 4-1 winners, but this time around feels quite different. There were season-long expectations that Man City would eventually overtake Arsenal, and the Gunners capitulated to the pervasive feeling as they crumbled under the weight of the moment.

Just a week shy of one year later, Arsenal feel a side worthy of the opportunity, while Man City have struggled against top-tier opponents. Not only has Pep Guardiola failed to muster a victory against the other two title contenders this season in three tries so far, he has only managed two wins against ‘Big Six’ opposition, both against struggling rivals Man United. Against Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea, City have scraped together five draws and a defeat so far, with this game plus one against Spurs, left on the horizon.

The Gunners can get a result, and backing Arsenal on the double chance at -120 feels a strong play.


Man City vs Arsenal match facts

  • Date: Sunday, Mar. 31, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 4:30 p.m. local (11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT)
  • Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
  • Referee: Anthony Taylor, VAR: Jarred Gillett
  • Last meeting: Arsenal 1-0 Man City (Oct. 8, 2023 | Premier League)

Man City vs Arsenal best bet

  • Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
  • Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

These high-powered Premier League meetings with title race implications often deliver far more tension than goals, which many have come to expect, so long as Liverpool are not involved.

Last time these two teams met, that’s exactly how it played out, as Arsenal won a cagey matchup 1-0 on a late Gabriel Martinelli winner. That game featured just 16 total shots combined, with only three on target and a total of 0.87 xG collected altogether.

Even City’s two games against high-flying Liverpool finished at 1-1 draws. Arsenal also managed a 1-1 stalemate against Liverpool, before pummeling the third-wheeling Reds 3-1 at home in a famous demolition that feels unlikely against a Guardiola-led club.

Man City vs Arsenal prop bet

  • Pick: Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +105 (FanDuel)

There’s no guarantee that the Belgian will be back from injury for this game, and even if he returns, he could start on the bench, but if Kevin De Bruyne is involved at all, he will play a starring role.

Injuries have cut down De Bruyne’s season, one of the biggest reasons for Man City’s inability to establish a stronghold over the Premier League standings. Yet when he’s on the pitch, he’s just as scintillating as ever — in eight Premier League matches since his months-long hamstring injury, De Bruyne has delivered an assist in five of them, plus a goal in his first match back as well.

Get this — De Bruyne could go 5,000 minutes without an assist in Premier League play (approximately two full league seasons for most first-choice forwards) and he would still hold the record for most assists per 90 minutes in league history.

So you’re telling me that the league’s greatest chance creator and most influential playmaker has plus odds to record a goal contribution, something he’s done in more than half his appearances this season? Wait for lineups to be announced, or definitive team news at the very least, before making this selection, but if/when it’s made official that De Bruyne will take part, this play has exceptional value.

Man City vs Arsenal live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA NBC, Universo Fubo USA, Peacock, NBC Sports app, Telemundo Deportes en Vivo, Universo NOW
Canada  — Fubo Canada
UK Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League Sky Go Extra

U.S. rights holder NBC Sports has decided to take the rare step of placing this marquee Premier League matchup on network television, with the game to be on NBC as well as a Spanish-language broadcast on Universo. Both channels are available to stream on Fubo, who is offering a FREE trial for new users.

The match is also available to stream in the United States on Peacock, as well as the NBC Sports app and their Spanish-language platforms.

In Canada, the match is available to stream exclusively on Fubo Canada, where every single match of the 2023/24 Premier League season can be found. In the UK, the match will be televised and streamed on Sky Sports platforms.

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