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Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction, odds, expert football betting tips and best bets for FA Cup fourth round

Already into the EFL Cup final, Chelsea push for double cup glory as the Blues contest their FA Cup fourth round matchup against fellow Premier League side Aston Villa at home on Saturday.

It’s a difficult draw for Chelsea, as Villa sit fourth in the league table and have gone toe-to-toe with some of the league’s most imposing squads all throughout the campaign. Yet Villa seem to be showing signs of slipping slightly, having won just three of their last seven matches across all competitions dating back to a mid-December draw with Zrinjski Mostar in the Europa Conference League.

That could signal it’s time for Chelsea to pounce, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side starting to display hints of improvement. The Blues have won five of their last six across all competitions, dropping just the first leg of their EFL Cup semifinal 1-0 to Middlesbrough which they turned around in emphatic fashion in a 6-1 thrashing.

Chelsea stand as one of the Premier League’s worst finishing teams, but if they can start making good on their chances more consistently, as they’ve shown capability of recently, they could be set for a run not only up the Premier League table but also to domestic knockout glory as well.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Chelsea vs Aston Villa and bet Premier League matches

Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Chelsea (+110)
  • Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Aston Villa

Chelsea are a much improved side under Mauricio Pochettino, even if it took quite a while to show signs of his influence on the young squad. Despite a host of injuries, they appear to be grasping his tactical preferences, showing an increased ability to finish the extremely high volume of chances they create.

To beat Aston Villa it will take an exceptional performance, but this current iteration of Chelsea is far more capable of that required execution than earlier this year.

  DraftKings
(USA)
Chelsea win +110
Draw +255
Aston Villa win +225
Both teams
to score Y/N
-165 / +115
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-135 / -105
Chelsea
to advance
-185
Aston Villa
to advance
+130

Chelsea vs Aston Villa match facts

  • Date: Friday, Jan. 26, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 7:45 p.m. local (2:45 p.m. ET / 11:45 a.m. PT)
  • Location: Stamford Bridge (London, England)
  • Referee: Robert Jones, VAR: Simon Hooper
  • Last meeting: Chelsea 0-1 Aston Villa (Sep. 24, 2023 | Premier League)

Chelsea vs Aston Villa best bet

  • Pick: Chelsea over 1.5 goals
  • Odds: -105 (DraftKings)

The Blues have been creating waves of chances up front all season long, but have struggled to finish them. While the shooting woes remain an occasional problem, such as in the EFL Cup defeat at Middlesbrough or a scoreless draw with Everton, they are showing signs of turning this issue around.

In the nine Premier League games between zero-goal performances against Nottingham Forest on November 5 and Everton on January 14, Chelsea scored 17 goals on 16.44 xG, showing they are both creating significant volume and finishing them off at a reasonable rate. They pummeled Middlesbrough last time out, and Cole Palmer remains a revelation in whatever role he’s tasked.

Aston Villa are defensively solid, but they’ve conceded over 1.0 xG in five straight Premier League matches, and Clement Lenglet remains mistake-prone in big moments. Chelsea have not scored in two straight games against Villa, a statistical anomaly that will turn here.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa prop bet

  • Pick: Boubacar Kamara to be booked
  • Odds: +320 (DraftKings)
  • Pick: John McGinn to be booked
  • Odds: +350 (DraftKings)

While referee Robert Jones doesn’t quite hand yellow cards out like candy as some other Premier League officials do, he seems to have a few favourites on Aston Villa. He has officiated two Villa matches so far this season, booking six of their players combined across those two games. In both matches, he booked John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara.

It’s not like those two are otherwise averse to bookings, having picked up 11 cautions between the two, while committing a combined 55 fouls in Premier League play. Especially of late, the two have seen eight of those yellow cards in the 14 matches since the start of October, with Kamara also being sent off once in that span as well.

For their part, Chelsea have drawn the fifth-most fouls and fourth-most yellow cards in the Premier League this season. Raheem Sterling has won 34 fouls himself in league play, ninth-most in the English top flight, and he loves to cut inside on Kamara’s side of the field.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA  — ESPN+
Canada Sportsnet Sportsnet Now
UK  —  —

The FA Cup broadcast rights in the United States are owned by ESPN this season, with every game streamed on ESPN+ throughout the entirety of the competition, and this fourth round matchup is no different.


In Canada, FA Cup matches are broadcast by Sportsnet, with streaming available on their dedicated platform Sportsnet Now. In the UK, this match was not selected for television broadcast.

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