The Broncos made Sean Payton one of the NFL’s highest-paid coaches to get the most out of each roster. That certainly seems to be what the Super Bowl-winning coach has done in 2024.
Denver has secured its first winning season in eight years despite entering the year with low expectations, and the Broncos’ playoff differential is the highest it’s been since the franchise won Super Bowl 50 nine seasons ago.
The Broncos’ Super Bowl season was the last time they made the playoffs, giving Denver the NFL’s second-longest playoff drought behind only the Jets. That could change in Week 16, as Payton has the Broncos on the verge of a return to the playoffs that could only be called ahead of schedule.
Here’s an updated look at the Broncos’ playoff chances and what they need to do to clinch.
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Broncos playoff picture
AFC wild-card standings
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 5 | Ravens | 9-5 |
| 6 | Broncos | 9-5 |
| 7 | Chargers | 8-6 |
| 8 | Colts | 6-8 |
| 9 | Dolphins | 6-8 |
| 10 | Bengals | 6-8 |
| 11 | Jets | 4-10 |
| 12 | Browns | 3-11 |
| 13 | Jaguars | 3-11 |
| 14 | Titans | 3-11 |
| 15 | Patriots | 3-11 |
| 16 | Raiders | 2-12 |
The Broncos took a giant step toward the playoffs with their Week 15 win over the Colts, moving into the No. 6 seed in the AFC and gaining another game of separation between themselves and the Colts as well as the Dolphins.
Because of the win, the Broncos face a win-and-in scenario on Thursday. A victory over the Chargers would send Denver to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 and put the team in strong position to land at least the No. 6 seed ahead of Los Angeles.
The Broncos’ playoff chances would still be quite high with a loss, but that result would drop Denver to No. 7 in the AFC with the head-to-head tiebreaker belonging to the Chargers. The Broncos also lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Ravens due to a November loss in Baltimore.
With three weeks remaining, it would take a major collapse (and some “help” from the trio of 6-8 teams) for the Broncos to miss the playoffs entirely.
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Broncos remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) |
| 16 | Dec. 19 | at Chargers | 8:15 p.m. |
| 17 | Dec. 28 | at Bengals | 4:30 p.m. |
| 18 | Jan. 5 | vs. Chiefs | TBD |
The Broncos don’t have any layups down the stretch, as the Chargers are desperate after a pair of losses while the Bengals’ offense remains red hot even if the team itself is vulnerable.
If it happened to come down to Week 18 for Denver, which isn’t likely at this point, it’s possible the Broncos would face a Chiefs team without Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City could lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed as soon as Week 16, so sitting key starters could be an option for Andy Reid by the time the final game of the season arrives.
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Broncos updated playoff chances
ESPN’s Football Power Index rates the Broncos’ playoff chances at 93 percent entering Week 16, indicating Denver is highly likely to snap its playoff drought and earn a wild-card berth.
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