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2023 Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Odds to win NL East, World Series, over/under win total, more

The Phillies ended last year with an incredible postseason run that saw them only two wins away from winning the World Series. After having that taste of postseason success, the Phils made significant upgrades in the offseason to the bullpen (Craig Kimbrel, Matthew Strahm, Gregory Soto), lineup (Trea Turner), and starting rotation (Taijuan Walker).

The addition of Turner, who is one of the best infielders in the majors, will help, as Philadelphia will be without former NL MVP Bryce Harper (elbow) to start the regular season. However, Harper will eventually return later this summer to a team with Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, and JT Realmuto and potentially one of the best starting rotations in the majors.

The oddsmakers have considered the first-half loss of Harper, as the Phillies have the third-best odds to win the NL East (+300) behind the Mets and Braves, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. However, one could argue that the Phillies could be a good value play to win the 2023 World Series at +1400. Philadelphia also has 7/1 odds (+700) to win the NL Pennant for the second consecutive year.

Below, we’ll break down the various Phillies’ futures markets that bettors can consider investing in.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

2023 Philadelphia Phillies regular season win total: Over or under?

  • OVER 88.5 wins (-118)
  • UNDER 88.5 wins (-104)

The Phillies finished last season with a record of 87-75, which was good enough to get them into the playoffs as a wild-card team. Philadelphia also surpassed their regular season win total, which was set at 86.5. The Phillies played above-.500 baseball in the first and second halves and played well at Citizens Bank Park with a 47-34 record.

Philadelphia was also competitive within the division, taking care of the business against the Nationals (16-3), Marlins (12-7), and Braves (8-11) to a certain extent. However, the Phillies struggled immensely with the Mets, who had their number last season. The Phils went 5-14 against New York, which did not help their cause in trying to keep pace in the division. If Philadelphia wants to go OVER their win and possibly compete for the division crown, they have to play at least .500 against New York. The good news for the Phillies is they added Walker to the starting rotation, giving them a solid four starters (Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez) who could rack up a ton of quality starts.

We will side with the OVER 88.5 wins for the Phillies because of the upgraded rotation and bullpen. Even without Harper, this team should be able to tread water, as they will only face seven playoff teams from last season within the first couple of months. Last season, the Phillies struggled in May (10-18). If they can turn that around this season, it will go a long way to winning the division.

2023 Philadelphia Phillies odds to win NL East

Team Odds
Atlanta Braves +135
New York Mets +140
Philadelphia Phillies +300
Miami Marlins +4500
Washington Nationals  +25000

With the Phillies’ win total set at O/U 88.5, it’s not surprising to see them with the third-best odds to win the (+300). Last season, the Braves and Mets finished with the same record (101-61), but the Braves won the tiebreaker. Heading into this season, the NL East will come down to Atlanta, New York, and Philly unless the Marlins (+4500) surprise everybody with their improving starting rotation.

Atlanta might take a step back this season after losing Dansby Swanson in free agency, but they have a stellar young second baseman in Vaughn Grissom, who made some plays last season. The Braves also have a good pitching staff led by Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Kyle Wright, and Ian Anderson. However, the Mets appear ready to win the division after signing the reigning AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander to pair with Max Scherzer. The Mets also have a good offense that can rival some of the best teams in MLB, and they have one of the best closers in baseball (Edwin Diaz).

Nevertheless, the best option for bettors is to wait and see how the first month plays out for the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. There’s no value in betting on any of these teams, especially the Phillies at 3/1. If the Phillies start slow, their odds will drop below 5/1 (+500), providing more value for bettors for the rest of the season. The same idea can be applied to the Mets and Braves, who will play each other for the first time at the end of April.

2023 Philadelphia Phillies NL pennant odds

The defending NL champion Phillies have the fifth-best odds (+700) to win the NL pennant for the second-straight season. The Dodgers are the betting favorite to win the National League (+410), despite losing Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger in the offseason. The Dodgers also will not have starting pitcher Walker Buehler, who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and shortstop Gavin Lux, who tore his ACL in spring training.

If the Phillies want to win the pennant again, they will likely have to go through the gauntlet of beating an NL East team (Braves or Mets) and an NL West team (Dodgers or Padres). Last year, we saw Philadelphia take down the Braves and Padres in impressive fashion, but those teams will not be easy outs this season. Since the Phillies play in the toughest division in baseball, there’s a chance they could be a wild-card team again this season, making their road to the NLCS hard. Therefore, if bettors want to jump on the Phillies’ odds to win the NL at +700, we wouldn’t blame them because it’s hard to see a team from NL Central better than them.

2023 Philadelphia Phillies World Series odds

Finally, the Phillies have seventh-best odds (+1400) to win the Fall classic this season behind teams such as Astros (+600), Yankees (+800), Braves (+800), Dodgers (+800), Mets (+800), and the Padres (+950). As previously explained, they have a hard road to return to the NLCS, let alone a second-straight World Series.

For Philadelphia to get back to the World Series and win it all this season, they will need their big bats to stay healthy (Harper), hope for Nick Castellanos to look like the hitter we saw in 2021, and for the bullpen to pitch well behind a stellar starting rotation. Without Harper to start the season, things might be tough for the Phillies, and depending on how the first month goes, we could see significant odds movement. If they start below. 500, and their odds go to 20/1 or higher, bettors should pounce on those odds immediately. This team has the tools to succeed and the right manager (Rob Thomson) leading them. Now it’s about the Phillies doing the little things which doomed them in the final games of last year’s World Series.

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