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Australian Open men’s final odds & prediction: Sinner heavy favorite over Medvedev to claim first Grand Slam title

A new Australian Open men’s singles champion will be crowned Sunday, as Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will meet at Melbourne Park. 

Sinner, who knocked off 10-time champion Novak Djokovic on Friday, is a heavy favorite to win his first Grand Slam title based on Australian Open odds posted at top-rated sportsbooks. He was listed at -260 on the moneyline at FanDuel in odds released not long after the final was set.

Medvedev, who will be playing in his third Aussie Open final in the past four years, is a clear underdog at +210. While he’s never won it all Down Under, he does have a US Open title to his credit.

Australian Open men’s final odds: Sinner vs. Medvedev moneyline, spread

Odds for the Australian Open final were still relatively volatile Friday morning, but here’s a look at the early numbers released for the match at FanDuel:

  • Jannik Sinner moneyline: -260
  • Daniil Medvedev moneyline: +210
  • Sinner games spread: -4.5 (-130)
  • Medvedev games spread: +4.5 (-102)

Sinner and Medvedev have played nine times as professionals, with Medvedev holding a 6-3 edge. Sinner has won the past three, however, all in 2023, and two coming in Finals.

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Jannik Sinner betting news and analysis

The 22-year-old Italian has been knocking on the door at Grand Slam tournaments heading into this year, even though this will be his first final. 

Sinner, ranked No. 4 in the world, was a Wimbledon semifinalist in 2023, and advanced to the quarterfinal of the US Open in 2022. 

But by far the biggest victory of his young career came Friday in a domination of Djokovic, the most decorated men’s tennis player of all-time. Sinner won 6-1, 6-2, 6-7 (6), 6-3 to dispatch Djokovic and become the youngest male to make an Aussie Open Final since Djokovic in 2008.

It was Djokovic’s first loss at the Australian Open since 2018.

Sinner does have 10 ATP titles to his credit, with by far the biggest being the ATP Masters 1000 in 2023. One of his 10 titles came in Melbourne, as he won the Adelaide International in 2021.

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Daniil Medvedev betting news and analysis

Medvedev is the No. 3 seed, and has spent much of the past several years nipping at the heels of the top players in the world.

He advanced to Sunday’s final by coming back from two sets down to defeat Alexander Zverev 5-7, 3-6, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (7), 6-3.

The win gives him a third crack at winning it all in Melbourne, as he was runner-up to Djokovic in 2021 and Rafael Nadal in 2022. Medvedev had a two-set lead against Nadal before losing the last three sets 4-6, 4-6, 5-7 to come up short.

He’s won 20 ATP titles in his career, with the US Open in 2021 being his lone Grand Slam championship.

The 27-year-old Russian will need to break his current skid against Sinner, however, having dropped three in a row to the youngster. All three of those defeats came on hard courts, as well.

Australian Open Final: Sinner vs. Medvedev prediction

Sinner has a feeling of inevitability to him, as part of a new generation of talent along with Carlos Alcaraz, who can take over the sport when Djokovic and Nadal leave it behind for good.

Shockingly, he’s the one coming off a less stressful semifinal, coasting past Djokovic while Medvedev had to scratch and claw to defeat Zverev. Add that to the fact that he seems to have Medvedev’s number of late, and this feels like his moment.

A moneyline bet wouldn’t be very profitable, however, as he’s such a heavy favorite, so we’re looking to the spread.

Pick: Sinner -4.5 games

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